KMCO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≤ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 07:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 12.6¢Risks 12.55u

EPSNO 87.5¢Risks 87.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +87.45u · EPS −87.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	8.8%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	10.4%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	58.7%	22.3%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.4%	14.9%	18.0%	63.1%	—	26.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	14.0%	9.0%	11.7%	—	35.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	16.9%	23.9%	23.9%	—	31.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.5%	10.4%	29.5%	24.2%	—	35.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	64.4%	12.2%	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	12.9%	16.8%	23.2%	—	33.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	23.3%	10.3%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	14.6%	10.5%	18.4%	—	30.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	13.0%	12.1%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	11.9%	13.4%	21.6%	—	25.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	11.3%	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	16.5%	12.1%	21.0%	—	27.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	19.7%	9.6%	—	—	77.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	16.3%	13.4%	21.2%	—	31.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	16.3%	12.7%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	19.8%	13.1%	17.6%	17.6%	28.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	13.5%	97.9%	—	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	24%	78.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	13%	80.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	82.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.3°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 75°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261022-TMAX-LE75
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Orlando stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗