KMCO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

77%

76%

58%

46%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.6¢Risks 65.65u

HRESNO 34.4¢Risks 34.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.35u · HRES −34.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	76.4%	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	7.6%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	11.3%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	19.8%	60.7%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	52.1%	74.3%	21.4%	—	43.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	69.0%	54.4%	47.8%	—	40.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	65.6%	51.5%	50.0%	—	38.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	48.4%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	63.3%	57.1%	49.2%	—	44.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	13.9%	47.5%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	63.1%	56.6%	56.6%	—	46.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	57.6%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	43.9%	59.6%	44.8%	—	41.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	54.5%	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	50.9%	55.5%	42.7%	—	42.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	57.5%	55.7%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	51.0%	52.9%	50.0%	61.5%	40.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	45.0%	—	—	39.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	83.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	80.9°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	82.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	58%	80.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	79.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗