KMCO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

77%

76%

58%

46%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.6¢Risks 65.65u

HRESNO 34.4¢Risks 34.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.35u · HRES −34.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:14+00:00	83.7%	74.8%	84.7%	40.2%	48.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	83.5%	74.8%	84.6%	40.2%	48.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:24+00:00	83.5%	74.8%	84.6%	40.2%	48.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	83.5%	74.8%	84.6%	40.2%	48.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	83.5%	74.8%	84.6%	40.2%	48.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	83.5%	74.8%	89.9%	40.2%	48.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	83.5%	74.8%	89.9%	40.2%	48.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	83.5%	74.8%	89.9%	40.2%	48.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	75.7%	74.8%	89.9%	40.2%	68.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	75.7%	74.8%	89.9%	40.2%	68.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	75.7%	74.8%	89.9%	40.2%	68.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	75.7%	74.8%	89.9%	40.2%	68.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	75.7%	74.8%	89.9%	45.7%	68.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	75.7%	74.8%	87.6%	45.7%	68.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:11+00:00	75.7%	74.8%	87.6%	45.7%	68.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	75.7%	74.8%	87.6%	45.7%	68.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	76.2%	74.8%	87.6%	45.7%	68.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	76.2%	74.8%	87.6%	45.7%	68.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	76.2%	74.8%	87.6%	45.7%	68.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	76.2%	74.8%	87.6%	45.7%	68.9%
2026-10-17T04:41:27+00:00	76.2%	74.8%	87.6%	45.7%	68.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	76.2%	74.8%	88.0%	45.7%	68.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	76.2%	74.8%	88.0%	45.7%	68.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	76.2%	74.8%	88.0%	45.7%	68.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:11+00:00	79.2%	74.8%	88.0%	47.0%	81.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	79.2%	74.8%	88.0%	47.0%	81.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	79.2%	74.8%	88.0%	47.0%	81.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	79.2%	74.8%	88.0%	47.0%	81.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	79.2%	74.8%	88.0%	47.0%	81.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	79.2%	70.0%	92.1%	47.0%	81.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	79.2%	70.0%	92.1%	47.0%	81.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	79.2%	70.0%	92.1%	47.0%	81.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	77.6%	70.0%	92.1%	47.0%	81.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	77.6%	70.0%	92.1%	47.0%	81.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	77.6%	70.4%	92.1%	47.0%	81.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	77.6%	70.4%	92.1%	47.0%	81.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	77.6%	70.4%	90.4%	47.0%	81.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	77.6%	70.4%	90.4%	47.0%	81.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	77.6%	70.4%	90.4%	47.0%	81.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	77.6%	70.4%	90.4%	47.0%	81.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	90.4%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	90.4%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	90.4%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	90.4%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	89.2%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	89.2%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	89.2%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	89.2%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	89.2%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	89.2%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	89.2%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	89.2%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	88.4%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	88.4%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	88.4%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	78.1%	70.4%	88.4%	54.2%	79.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:02+00:00	80.7%	70.4%	88.4%	47.9%	76.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	80.7%	70.4%	88.4%	47.9%	76.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	80.7%	70.4%	88.4%	47.9%	76.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	80.7%	70.4%	88.4%	47.9%	76.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	80.7%	87.8%	90.1%	47.9%	76.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	80.7%	87.8%	90.1%	47.9%	76.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	80.7%	87.8%	90.1%	47.9%	76.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	80.7%	87.8%	90.1%	47.9%	76.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	79.0%	87.8%	90.1%	47.9%	76.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:39+00:00	79.0%	87.8%	90.1%	47.9%	76.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	79.0%	81.5%	90.1%	47.9%	76.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:52+00:00	79.0%	81.5%	90.1%	47.9%	76.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	79.0%	81.5%	87.9%	47.9%	76.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	79.0%	81.5%	87.9%	47.9%	76.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	79.0%	81.5%	87.9%	47.9%	76.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	79.0%	81.5%	87.9%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	79.0%	81.5%	87.9%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	79.0%	81.5%	87.9%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	79.0%	81.5%	87.9%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	79.0%	81.5%	87.9%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	79.0%	81.5%	88.3%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	79.0%	81.5%	88.3%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	79.0%	81.5%	88.3%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	77.9%	81.5%	88.3%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	77.9%	81.5%	88.3%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	77.9%	81.5%	88.3%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	77.9%	81.5%	88.3%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:32+00:00	77.9%	81.5%	88.3%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:00+00:00	77.9%	81.5%	87.4%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	77.9%	81.5%	87.4%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	77.9%	81.5%	87.4%	59.6%	75.9%
2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00	77.1%	81.5%	87.4%	46.0%	58.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	77.1%	81.5%	87.4%	46.0%	58.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	77.1%	81.5%	87.4%	46.0%	58.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	77.1%	81.5%	87.4%	46.0%	58.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00	77.1%	81.5%	87.4%	46.0%	58.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	77.1%	76.9%	85.2%	46.0%	58.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	77.1%	76.9%	85.2%	46.0%	58.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	77.1%	76.9%	85.2%	46.0%	58.1%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	75.7%	76.9%	85.2%	46.0%	58.1%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	75.8%	76.9%	85.3%	46.0%	58.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	83.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	80.9°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	82.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	58%	80.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	79.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗