KMCO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

62%

38%

37%

34%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.3¢Risks 50.25u

HRESNO 49.7¢Risks 49.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.75u · HRES −49.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	66.5%	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	4.0%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	6.2%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	11.8%	47.3%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	38.2%	61.8%	12.6%	—	30.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	55.1%	39.9%	33.7%	—	27.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	50.8%	36.5%	35.1%	—	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	33.4%	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	47.6%	41.3%	33.7%	—	29.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	6.8%	31.9%	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	46.7%	40.1%	40.1%	—	30.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	40.7%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	27.7%	42.2%	28.4%	—	25.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	36.8%	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	33.0%	37.3%	25.9%	—	25.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	38.8%	37.0%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	32.1%	33.9%	31.3%	42.3%	23.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	26.5%	—	—	21.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	66%	82.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	82.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	38%	80.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	80.8°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	79.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗