KMCO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≤ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.9¢Risks 4.45u

EPSNO 91.1¢Risks 45.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.55u · EPS −45.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	9.5%	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	78.9%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	71.1%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	56.7%	17.1%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	22.4%	8.7%	53.5%	—	29.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	10.9%	19.9%	24.9%	—	31.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	12.2%	21.1%	22.2%	—	31.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	22.9%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	12.7%	16.4%	21.8%	—	25.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	60.5%	22.4%	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	12.0%	15.7%	15.7%	—	22.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	14.7%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	23.4%	13.1%	22.8%	—	25.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	15.5%	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	17.2%	14.4%	23.0%	—	23.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	12.7%	13.7%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	15.9%	14.7%	16.5%	10.2%	23.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	19.0%	—	—	23.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	17%	79.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	80.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	82.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	82.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.8°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 75°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261023-TMAX-LE75
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Orlando stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗