WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KMCO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≤ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
17%
ICON
11%
AIFS
4%
WN2
1%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 8.9¢Risks 4.45u
VS
EPSNO 91.1¢Risks 45.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.55u · EPS −45.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00IFS HRES: 11.5% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00IFS HRES: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:00IFS HRES: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00IFS HRES: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00ICON: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00ICON: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00ICON: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00ICON: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00ICON: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00ICON: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00ICON: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00ICON: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00ICON: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00ICON: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00ICON: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 17:2910-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:005.3%0.1%1.7%24.2%15.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:005.3%0.1%1.7%24.2%15.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:005.3%0.1%1.7%24.2%15.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:005.3%0.1%1.7%24.2%15.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:005.3%0.1%1.7%24.2%15.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:005.3%0.2%1.7%24.2%15.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:005.3%0.2%1.7%24.2%15.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:005.3%0.2%1.7%24.2%15.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:005.8%0.2%1.7%24.2%15.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:005.8%0.2%1.7%24.2%15.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:005.8%0.3%1.7%24.2%15.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:005.8%0.3%1.7%24.2%15.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:005.8%0.3%1.7%24.2%15.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:005.8%0.3%1.9%24.2%15.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:005.8%0.3%1.9%24.2%15.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:005.8%0.3%1.9%24.2%15.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:005.5%0.3%1.9%11.5%11.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:005.5%0.3%1.9%11.5%11.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:005.5%0.3%1.9%11.5%11.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:005.5%0.3%1.9%11.5%11.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:005.5%0.3%1.9%11.5%11.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:004.3%0.5%1.4%17.3%11.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:004.3%0.5%1.4%17.3%11.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:004.3%0.5%1.4%17.3%11.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:004.3%0.5%1.4%17.3%11.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:004.3%0.5%1.4%17.3%11.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:004.3%0.5%1.4%17.3%11.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES17%79.7°F4.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON11%80.3°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend9%80.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast5%82.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
AIFS Single4%82.8°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%82.9°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%80.8°F2.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 75°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261023-TMAX-LE75
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Orlando stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗