KMCO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

78%

73%

68%

57%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 70.0¢Risks 70.00u

ICONNO 30.0¢Risks 30.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +30.00u · ICON −30.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	47.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	72.7%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	26.5%	68.2%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	40.9%	70.2%	19.4%	—	36.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	26.6%	52.2%	46.4%	—	43.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	36.5%	50.0%	54.6%	—	49.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	27.4%	54.8%	48.4%	—	43.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	8.8%	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	36.1%	72.1%	53.3%	—	45.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	59.3%	58.5%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	43.0%	73.1%	44.8%	73.1%	43.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	60.7%	—	—	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	83.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	81.3°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	82.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	81.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	80.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗