KMCO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

78%

73%

68%

57%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 70.0¢Risks 70.00u

ICONNO 30.0¢Risks 30.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +30.00u · ICON −30.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:11+00:00	79.3%	81.8%	79.6%	42.6%	53.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	79.3%	81.8%	79.6%	42.6%	53.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	79.3%	81.8%	79.6%	42.6%	53.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	79.3%	81.8%	79.6%	42.6%	53.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	79.3%	81.8%	79.6%	42.6%	53.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	79.3%	83.0%	83.7%	42.6%	53.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	79.3%	83.0%	83.7%	42.6%	53.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	79.3%	83.0%	83.7%	42.6%	53.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	62.9%	83.0%	83.7%	42.6%	53.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	62.9%	83.0%	83.6%	42.6%	54.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	62.9%	83.0%	83.6%	42.6%	54.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	62.9%	83.0%	83.6%	42.6%	54.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	62.9%	83.0%	78.3%	42.6%	54.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	62.9%	83.0%	78.3%	42.6%	54.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	62.9%	83.0%	78.3%	42.6%	54.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	62.9%	83.0%	78.3%	42.6%	54.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	61.6%	83.0%	78.3%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	61.6%	83.0%	78.3%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	61.6%	83.0%	78.3%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	61.6%	83.0%	78.3%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	61.6%	83.0%	69.5%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	61.6%	83.0%	69.5%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	61.6%	83.0%	69.5%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	61.6%	83.0%	69.5%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	74.0%	83.0%	69.5%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	74.0%	83.0%	69.5%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	74.0%	83.0%	69.5%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	74.0%	83.0%	69.5%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	74.0%	83.0%	70.8%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	74.0%	83.0%	70.8%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	74.0%	83.0%	70.8%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	74.0%	83.0%	70.8%	24.3%	63.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:02+00:00	53.7%	83.0%	70.8%	55.4%	51.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	53.7%	83.0%	70.8%	55.4%	51.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	53.7%	83.0%	70.8%	55.4%	51.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	53.7%	83.0%	70.8%	55.4%	51.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	53.7%	77.9%	74.6%	55.4%	51.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	53.7%	77.9%	74.6%	55.4%	51.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	53.7%	77.9%	74.6%	55.4%	51.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	53.7%	77.9%	74.6%	55.4%	51.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	58.8%	77.3%	74.7%	55.4%	51.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:39+00:00	58.8%	77.3%	74.7%	55.4%	51.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	58.8%	71.8%	74.7%	55.4%	51.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:52+00:00	58.8%	71.8%	74.7%	55.4%	51.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	58.8%	71.8%	65.0%	55.4%	51.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	58.8%	71.8%	65.0%	55.4%	51.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	58.8%	71.8%	65.0%	55.4%	51.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	60.9%	71.8%	65.0%	64.8%	60.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	60.9%	71.8%	65.0%	64.8%	60.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	60.9%	71.8%	65.0%	64.8%	60.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	60.9%	71.8%	65.0%	64.8%	60.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	60.9%	71.8%	65.0%	64.8%	60.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	60.9%	71.8%	63.4%	64.8%	60.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	60.9%	71.8%	63.4%	64.8%	60.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	60.9%	71.8%	63.4%	64.8%	60.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	64.4%	71.8%	63.4%	64.8%	60.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	64.4%	71.8%	63.4%	64.8%	60.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	64.4%	71.8%	63.4%	64.8%	60.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	64.4%	71.8%	63.4%	64.8%	60.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00	65.0%	76.2%	68.7%	66.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	65.0%	76.2%	68.7%	66.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	65.0%	76.2%	68.7%	66.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	65.0%	76.2%	72.0%	66.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	65.0%	76.2%	72.0%	66.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	65.0%	76.2%	72.0%	66.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	75.4%	76.2%	72.0%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	75.4%	76.2%	72.0%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	75.4%	76.2%	72.0%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	75.4%	76.2%	72.0%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	75.4%	76.2%	72.0%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:27+00:00	75.4%	76.2%	71.2%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	75.4%	76.2%	71.2%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	75.4%	76.2%	71.2%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	76.1%	76.2%	71.2%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	76.1%	76.2%	71.2%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	76.1%	76.2%	71.2%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	76.1%	76.2%	71.2%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	76.1%	76.2%	71.2%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	76.1%	76.2%	74.4%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	76.1%	76.2%	74.4%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	76.1%	76.2%	74.4%	52.1%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	82.6%	76.2%	74.4%	52.1%	57.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	82.6%	76.2%	74.4%	52.1%	57.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	82.6%	76.2%	74.4%	52.1%	57.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	82.6%	76.2%	74.4%	52.1%	57.3%
2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:00	82.6%	78.3%	67.6%	73.2%	57.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	82.6%	78.3%	67.6%	73.2%	57.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	82.6%	78.3%	67.6%	73.2%	57.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	82.6%	78.3%	67.6%	73.2%	57.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	82.7%	78.3%	67.6%	73.3%	57.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	82.7%	78.3%	67.6%	73.3%	57.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	83.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	81.3°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	82.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	81.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	80.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗