KMCO / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

80%

74%

69%

67%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 79.2¢Risks 79.25u

ICONNO 20.8¢Risks 20.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +20.75u · ICON −20.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	73.4%	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	79.3%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	9.0%	59.4%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	48.6%	69.5%	32.3%	—	57.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	75.7%	72.8%	57.3%	—	55.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	66.3%	76.1%	58.3%	—	58.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	77.6%	75.2%	54.8%	56.4%	59.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	73.0%	—	—	60.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	80.8°F	2.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	81.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	81.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	80.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	67%	81.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261025-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗