KMCO / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

77%

76%

74%

65%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.5¢Risks 35.77u

HRESNO 28.4¢Risks 14.22u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +14.22u · HRES −14.22u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	62.5%	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	13.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	68.8%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	4.7%	46.0%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	34.9%	56.3%	20.9%	—	43.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	62.9%	59.4%	42.7%	—	41.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	51.5%	62.7%	43.2%	—	43.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	64.1%	61.0%	39.0%	40.5%	43.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	58.1%	—	—	44.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	82.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	77%	84.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	83.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	81.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	81.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261025-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗