KMCO / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

80%

80%

76%

64%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.6¢Risks 36.30u

HRESNO 27.4¢Risks 13.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +13.70u · HRES −13.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	72.4%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	68.2%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	19.8%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	13.9%	75.1%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	53.5%	67.0%	18.0%	—	43.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	67.7%	77.4%	55.1%	23.7%	47.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	77.3%	—	—	4.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	83.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	85.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	84.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	81.2°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	81.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗