KMCO / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

80%

80%

76%

64%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.6¢Risks 36.30u

HRESNO 27.4¢Risks 13.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +13.70u · HRES −13.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	49.3%	74.3%	63.8%	56.8%	42.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	49.3%	74.3%	63.8%	56.8%	42.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	49.3%	74.3%	63.8%	56.8%	42.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	63.6%	74.3%	63.8%	56.8%	42.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	63.6%	74.3%	63.8%	56.8%	42.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00	63.6%	72.9%	63.8%	56.8%	42.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	63.6%	72.9%	63.8%	56.8%	42.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	63.6%	72.9%	63.8%	56.8%	42.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	63.6%	72.9%	77.8%	56.8%	42.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	63.6%	72.9%	77.8%	56.8%	42.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	63.6%	72.9%	77.8%	56.8%	42.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	67.5%	72.9%	77.8%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	67.5%	72.9%	77.8%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	67.5%	72.9%	77.8%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	67.5%	72.9%	77.8%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00	67.5%	72.9%	77.8%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:27+00:00	67.5%	72.9%	80.6%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	67.5%	72.9%	80.6%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	67.5%	72.9%	80.6%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	64.3%	72.9%	80.6%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	64.3%	72.9%	80.6%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	64.3%	72.9%	80.6%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	64.3%	72.9%	80.6%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	64.3%	72.9%	80.6%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	64.3%	72.9%	77.8%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	64.3%	72.9%	77.8%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	64.3%	72.9%	77.8%	58.6%	69.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	80.3%	72.9%	77.8%	58.6%	80.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	80.3%	72.9%	77.8%	58.6%	80.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	80.3%	72.9%	77.8%	58.6%	80.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	80.3%	72.9%	77.8%	58.6%	80.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:00	80.3%	75.7%	81.0%	64.2%	80.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	80.3%	75.7%	81.0%	64.2%	80.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	80.3%	75.7%	81.0%	64.2%	80.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	80.3%	75.7%	81.0%	64.2%	80.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	80.3%	75.7%	81.0%	64.2%	80.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	80.3%	75.7%	81.0%	64.2%	80.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	83.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	85.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	84.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	81.2°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	81.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗