KMCO / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

26%

20%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 20.0¢Risks 20.00u

EPSNO 80.0¢Risks 80.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.00u · EPS −80.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	26.7%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	21.6%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	1.6%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.7%	24.9%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	9.3%	16.6%	1.0%	—	5.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	15.6%	23.7%	9.0%	1.5%	6.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	22.7%	—	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	40%	85.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	84.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	83.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	81.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.2°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261026-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 19 · 17:29 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗