KMEM / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 29 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

85%

80%

79%

71%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 82.9¢Risks 82.95u

HRESNO 17.1¢Risks 17.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +17.05u · HRES −17.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-28T03:27:35+00:00	78.7%	91.6%	60.0%	72.5%	87.8%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	78.7%	91.6%	60.0%	72.5%	87.8%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	78.7%	91.6%	71.2%	72.5%	91.3%
2026-09-28T05:43:44+00:00	78.7%	91.6%	71.2%	72.5%	91.3%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	78.7%	91.6%	71.2%	72.5%	91.3%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	78.7%	91.6%	71.2%	72.5%	91.3%
2026-09-28T07:59:30+00:00	79.5%	91.6%	71.2%	70.3%	91.3%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	79.5%	91.6%	71.2%	70.3%	91.3%
2026-09-28T09:30:33+00:00	79.5%	91.6%	71.2%	70.3%	91.3%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	79.5%	91.6%	71.2%	70.3%	91.3%
2026-09-28T11:00:49+00:00	79.5%	86.3%	71.5%	70.3%	91.3%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	79.5%	86.3%	71.5%	70.3%	91.3%
2026-09-28T12:31:12+00:00	79.5%	86.3%	71.5%	70.3%	91.3%
2026-09-28T13:16:21+00:00	79.5%	86.3%	71.5%	70.3%	91.3%
2026-09-28T14:01:28+00:00	77.5%	86.3%	71.5%	70.3%	91.3%
2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00	77.5%	86.3%	71.5%	70.3%	91.3%
2026-09-28T15:34:03+00:00	77.5%	86.3%	71.5%	70.3%	91.3%
2026-09-28T16:19:09+00:00	77.5%	86.3%	71.5%	70.3%	91.3%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	77.5%	86.3%	65.7%	70.3%	89.1%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00	77.5%	86.3%	65.7%	70.3%	89.1%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00	77.5%	86.3%	65.7%	70.3%	89.1%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	77.5%	86.3%	65.7%	70.3%	89.1%
2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00	79.6%	86.3%	65.7%	80.1%	89.1%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	79.6%	86.3%	65.7%	80.1%	89.1%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00	79.6%	86.3%	65.7%	80.1%	89.1%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	79.6%	86.3%	65.7%	80.1%	89.1%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	79.6%	86.3%	65.7%	80.1%	89.1%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	79.6%	86.3%	65.7%	80.1%	89.1%
2026-09-29T00:35:18+00:00	79.6%	86.3%	65.7%	80.1%	89.1%
2026-09-29T01:20:28+00:00	79.6%	86.3%	65.7%	80.1%	89.1%
2026-09-29T02:05:45+00:00	82.1%	86.3%	65.7%	80.1%	89.1%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	82.1%	86.3%	65.7%	80.1%	89.1%
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00	82.1%	86.3%	65.7%	80.1%	89.1%
2026-09-29T04:21:24+00:00	82.1%	86.3%	65.7%	80.1%	89.1%
2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00	82.1%	86.3%	79.9%	80.1%	94.7%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	82.1%	86.3%	79.9%	80.1%	94.7%
2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00	82.1%	86.3%	79.9%	80.1%	94.7%
2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00	83.7%	86.3%	79.9%	71.2%	94.7%
2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00	83.7%	86.3%	79.9%	71.2%	94.7%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	83.7%	86.3%	79.9%	71.2%	94.7%
2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00	83.7%	86.3%	79.9%	71.2%	94.7%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00	83.7%	86.3%	79.9%	71.2%	94.7%
2026-09-29T11:08:52+00:00	83.7%	85.7%	79.9%	71.2%	94.7%
2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00	83.7%	85.7%	79.9%	71.2%	94.7%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	83.7%	85.7%	79.9%	71.2%	94.7%
2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00	79.9%	85.7%	79.9%	71.2%	94.7%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	79.3%	85.7%	79.9%	71.2%	94.7%
2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00	79.3%	84.7%	79.9%	71.2%	94.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	95%	96.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.0028
IFS Ensemble	85%	92.9°F	2.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.0234
WeatherNext 2	80%	93.6°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 18:00	0.0404
AIFS Single	79%	93.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-29 06:00	0.0428
IFS HRES	71%	92.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.0829
National Blend	67%	91.9°F	3.2°F	2026-09-29 06:00	0.1102
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 03:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261001-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 28 · 03:27 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 91°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗