KMEM / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 29 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

85%

80%

79%

71%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 82.9¢Risks 82.95u

HRESNO 17.1¢Risks 17.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +17.05u · HRES −17.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	22.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	3.3%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	29.7%	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	3.1%	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	65.1%	3.1%	—	31.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	75.7%	84.4%	44.9%	—	46.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	66.3%	81.1%	38.7%	—	67.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	73.9%	83.7%	46.0%	—	54.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	13.0%	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	56.6%	88.4%	26.5%	—	66.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	55.1%	86.3%	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	83.3%	84.4%	44.8%	—	71.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	83.9%	86.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	82.8%	87.1%	58.2%	—	65.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	82.9%	86.3%	—	—	67.4%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	87.9%	90.2%	61.5%	—	69.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	84.2%	91.6%	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	86.6%	92.9%	63.1%	—	68.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	92.4%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	95.3%	95.0%	58.7%	—	69.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	95.2%	95.0%	0.1%	—	65.4%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	94.3%	96.5%	33.1%	84.0%	61.5%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	93.0%	95.2%	53.6%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	91.0%	93.7%	56.2%	84.9%	66.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	90.2%	95.7%	12.8%	—	0.1%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	90.5%	96.8%	20.0%	88.7%	60.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	90.8%	98.5%	11.8%	—	62.3%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	93.7%	98.1%	40.0%	89.8%	66.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	36.6%	95.6%	99.2%	33.8%	—	61.9%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	85.8%	95.9%	15.2%	81.9%	51.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	69.0%	87.7%	5.3%	—	53.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	95%	96.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.0028
IFS Ensemble	85%	92.9°F	2.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.0234
WeatherNext 2	80%	93.6°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 18:00	0.0404
AIFS Single	79%	93.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-29 06:00	0.0428
IFS HRES	71%	92.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.0829
National Blend	67%	91.9°F	3.2°F	2026-09-29 06:00	0.1102
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 03:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261001-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 28 · 03:27 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 91°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗