KMEM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

53%

39%

28%

24%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.3¢Risks 50.30u

WN2NO 49.7¢Risks 49.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.70u · WN2 −49.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	2.2%	—	—	76.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	1.6%	—	—	77.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	85.5%	53.5%	28.6%	—	72.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	87.6%	89.7%	39.9%	—	84.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	94.2%	89.7%	70.4%	—	77.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	93.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	86.4%	90.0%	48.4%	—	70.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	3.9%	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	82.2%	91.6%	40.1%	—	58.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	71.2%	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	69.3%	86.4%	20.8%	—	45.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	72.9%	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	51.8%	88.1%	13.9%	—	29.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	37.9%	86.3%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	37.6%	80.3%	9.8%	—	45.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	39.1%	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	34.0%	83.0%	11.8%	—	49.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	32.6%	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	45.6%	65.9%	16.9%	—	42.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	38.9%	56.7%	0.0%	—	36.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	44.2%	69.0%	9.4%	—	48.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	42.8%	76.6%	8.7%	—	47.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	43.8%	82.6%	8.9%	32.0%	38.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	36.1%	81.8%	6.4%	—	32.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	39.4%	84.3%	3.5%	43.3%	23.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	52.8%	81.8%	6.2%	—	31.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	62.8%	84.6%	13.8%	45.7%	41.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	60.5%	85.6%	12.8%	—	20.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	57.9%	89.8%	11.7%	42.1%	18.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	61.4%	75.9%	20.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	72.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.5944
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.3181
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.3136
AIFS Single	53%	70.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2809
IFS HRES	39%	69.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1552
ICON	28%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0756
WeatherNext 2	24%	68.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0552

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗