KMEM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

53%

39%

28%

24%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.3¢Risks 50.30u

WN2NO 49.7¢Risks 49.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.70u · WN2 −49.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:02+00:00	68.8%	80.6%	44.1%	61.4%	44.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	68.8%	80.6%	44.1%	61.4%	44.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	68.8%	80.6%	51.2%	61.4%	44.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	68.8%	80.6%	51.2%	61.4%	44.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	68.8%	80.6%	51.2%	61.4%	44.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	68.8%	80.6%	51.2%	61.4%	44.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	49.1%	80.6%	51.2%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	49.1%	80.6%	51.2%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	49.1%	80.6%	51.2%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	49.1%	80.6%	51.2%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	49.1%	80.6%	40.6%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	49.1%	80.6%	40.6%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	49.1%	80.6%	40.6%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	52.8%	80.6%	40.6%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	52.8%	80.6%	40.6%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	52.8%	80.6%	40.6%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	52.8%	80.6%	40.6%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:28+00:00	47.1%	85.3%	29.2%	54.9%	42.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	47.1%	85.4%	29.2%	54.9%	42.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	47.1%	85.4%	29.2%	54.9%	42.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	47.1%	85.4%	30.3%	54.9%	42.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	47.1%	85.4%	30.3%	54.9%	42.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	47.1%	85.4%	30.3%	54.9%	42.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	52.9%	85.4%	30.3%	54.9%	41.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:26+00:00	52.9%	85.4%	30.3%	54.9%	41.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	52.9%	85.4%	30.3%	54.9%	41.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	52.9%	85.4%	30.3%	54.9%	41.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	52.9%	85.4%	30.3%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:28+00:00	52.9%	85.4%	33.7%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:30+00:00	52.9%	85.4%	33.7%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	52.9%	85.4%	33.7%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	33.7%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	33.7%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	33.7%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	33.7%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:36+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	33.7%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	41.1%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	41.1%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	54.9%	85.4%	41.1%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:19+00:00	56.0%	85.4%	41.1%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	56.0%	85.4%	41.1%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	56.0%	85.4%	41.1%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	56.0%	85.4%	41.1%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	56.0%	85.4%	41.1%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	56.0%	83.0%	26.8%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	56.0%	83.0%	26.8%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	56.0%	83.0%	26.8%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	53.0%	83.0%	26.8%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	53.0%	82.5%	26.8%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:35+00:00	53.0%	77.1%	26.8%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	53.0%	77.1%	26.8%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	53.0%	77.1%	24.6%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	53.0%	77.1%	24.6%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	53.0%	77.1%	24.6%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	53.0%	77.1%	24.6%	55.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	49.0%	77.1%	24.6%	39.4%	27.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	49.0%	77.1%	24.6%	39.4%	27.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	49.0%	77.1%	24.6%	39.4%	27.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	49.0%	77.1%	24.6%	39.4%	27.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	49.0%	77.1%	23.5%	39.4%	27.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	49.0%	77.1%	23.5%	39.4%	27.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	49.0%	77.1%	23.5%	39.4%	27.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	49.0%	77.1%	23.5%	39.4%	27.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	53.0%	77.1%	23.5%	39.4%	27.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	53.0%	77.1%	23.5%	39.4%	27.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	53.0%	77.1%	23.5%	39.4%	27.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	72.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.5944
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.3181
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.3136
AIFS Single	53%	70.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2809
IFS HRES	39%	69.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1552
ICON	28%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0756
WeatherNext 2	24%	68.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0552

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗