KMEM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

33%

21%

20%

12%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.6¢Risks 33.55u

ICONNO 66.5¢Risks 66.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.45u · ICON −66.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	1.0%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	75.9%	39.6%	18.0%	—	59.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	78.5%	81.6%	26.6%	—	74.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	88.2%	81.1%	56.1%	—	64.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	75.8%	81.1%	33.0%	—	55.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	1.5%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	69.2%	83.2%	25.1%	—	41.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	55.1%	78.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	52.6%	74.5%	10.5%	—	29.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	56.3%	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	33.9%	76.3%	6.1%	—	16.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	21.7%	73.2%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	21.0%	64.3%	3.8%	—	27.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	21.9%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	17.6%	67.0%	4.4%	—	29.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	16.3%	56.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	25.5%	44.5%	6.6%	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	19.8%	34.6%	0.0%	—	18.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	23.3%	46.5%	2.9%	—	27.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	21.6%	54.8%	2.5%	—	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	21.7%	62.3%	2.5%	13.7%	18.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	15.8%	60.2%	1.5%	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	17.3%	63.2%	0.6%	20.0%	7.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	26.5%	58.3%	1.3%	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	34.5%	61.4%	3.5%	20.2%	17.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	31.1%	61.9%	2.9%	—	5.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	27.6%	68.3%	2.4%	16.1%	4.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	29.5%	45.1%	4.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	77%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.5960
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
IFS Ensemble	55%	72.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3014
AIFS Single	33%	70.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1109
IFS HRES	21%	69.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0441
WeatherNext 2	20%	70.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0380
ICON	12%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0149

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗