KMEM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

33%

21%

20%

12%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.6¢Risks 33.55u

ICONNO 66.5¢Risks 66.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.45u · ICON −66.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:58+00:00	18.5%	71.0%	61.9%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	18.5%	71.0%	61.9%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:09+00:00	18.5%	71.0%	61.9%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	18.5%	71.0%	61.9%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:46+00:00	18.5%	71.0%	61.9%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:49+00:00	18.5%	58.7%	35.8%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	18.5%	58.7%	35.8%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	18.5%	58.7%	35.8%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:44+00:00	49.3%	58.7%	35.8%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	49.3%	58.7%	35.8%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:33+00:00	49.3%	54.4%	35.8%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	49.3%	54.4%	35.8%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	49.3%	54.4%	35.8%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	49.3%	54.4%	37.3%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:10+00:00	49.3%	54.4%	37.3%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	49.3%	54.4%	37.3%	95.3%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	67.9%	54.4%	37.3%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	67.9%	54.4%	37.3%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	67.9%	54.4%	37.3%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	67.9%	54.4%	37.3%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	67.9%	54.4%	37.3%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	67.9%	54.4%	63.4%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	67.9%	54.4%	63.4%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	67.9%	54.4%	63.4%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	76.3%	54.4%	63.4%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	76.3%	54.4%	63.4%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	76.3%	54.4%	63.4%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-12T04:01:20+00:00	76.3%	54.4%	63.4%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	76.3%	54.4%	63.4%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	76.3%	54.4%	71.4%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	76.3%	54.4%	71.4%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	76.3%	54.4%	71.4%	87.8%	80.6%
2026-10-12T07:48:12+00:00	73.9%	54.4%	71.4%	76.8%	86.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:26+00:00	73.9%	54.4%	71.4%	76.8%	86.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	73.9%	54.4%	71.4%	76.8%	86.7%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	73.9%	54.4%	71.4%	76.8%	86.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00	73.9%	54.4%	71.4%	76.8%	86.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:29+00:00	73.9%	54.4%	80.4%	76.8%	86.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	73.9%	68.8%	80.4%	76.8%	86.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	73.9%	68.8%	80.4%	76.8%	86.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	69.5%	68.8%	80.4%	76.8%	86.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	69.4%	68.7%	80.3%	76.8%	86.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:12+00:00	44.8%	60.7%	29.5%	55.6%	66.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	44.8%	60.7%	29.5%	55.6%	66.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	44.8%	60.7%	29.5%	55.6%	66.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	44.8%	60.7%	22.6%	55.6%	66.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	44.8%	60.7%	22.6%	55.6%	66.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	44.8%	60.7%	22.6%	55.6%	66.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	37.2%	60.7%	22.6%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	37.2%	60.7%	22.6%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	37.2%	60.7%	22.6%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	37.2%	60.7%	22.6%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	37.2%	60.7%	22.6%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	37.2%	60.7%	20.2%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	37.2%	60.7%	20.2%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	37.2%	60.7%	20.2%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	38.9%	60.7%	20.2%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	38.9%	60.7%	20.2%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	38.9%	60.7%	20.2%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:05+00:00	38.9%	60.7%	20.2%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	38.9%	60.7%	20.2%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	38.9%	60.7%	26.8%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	38.9%	60.7%	26.8%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00	38.9%	60.7%	26.8%	30.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T07:49:34+00:00	32.9%	60.7%	26.8%	43.8%	25.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	32.9%	60.7%	26.8%	43.8%	25.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	32.9%	60.7%	26.8%	43.8%	25.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	32.9%	60.7%	26.8%	43.8%	25.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	32.9%	60.7%	26.8%	43.8%	25.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:16+00:00	32.9%	60.7%	22.9%	43.8%	25.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	32.9%	61.3%	22.9%	43.8%	25.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:18+00:00	32.9%	61.3%	22.9%	43.8%	25.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	50.9%	61.2%	22.9%	43.8%	25.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	50.9%	61.2%	22.9%	43.8%	25.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:01+00:00	34.6%	61.3%	20.3%	40.3%	23.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	34.6%	61.3%	19.5%	40.3%	23.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00	34.6%	61.3%	19.5%	40.3%	23.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	34.6%	61.3%	19.5%	40.3%	23.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	30.3%	61.3%	19.5%	40.3%	22.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	30.3%	61.3%	19.5%	40.3%	22.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	30.3%	61.3%	19.5%	40.3%	22.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	30.3%	61.3%	19.5%	40.3%	22.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	30.3%	61.3%	19.5%	40.3%	22.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:15+00:00	30.3%	62.1%	11.6%	40.3%	22.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	30.3%	62.1%	11.6%	40.3%	22.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	30.3%	62.1%	11.6%	40.3%	22.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:25+00:00	28.6%	62.1%	11.6%	35.7%	22.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	28.6%	62.0%	11.6%	35.7%	22.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:53+00:00	33.3%	54.9%	7.9%	21.0%	12.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	33.3%	54.9%	19.5%	21.0%	12.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	33.3%	54.9%	19.5%	21.0%	12.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	33.3%	54.9%	19.5%	21.0%	12.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	33.3%	54.9%	19.5%	21.0%	12.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	77%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.5960
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
IFS Ensemble	55%	72.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3014
AIFS Single	33%	70.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1109
IFS HRES	21%	69.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0441
WeatherNext 2	20%	70.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0380
ICON	12%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0149

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗