KMEM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

40%

37%

29%

14%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 32.0¢Risks 32.05u

WN2NO 68.0¢Risks 67.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +67.95u · WN2 −67.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	63.8%	26.9%	10.2%	—	45.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	66.3%	70.3%	16.1%	—	61.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	78.9%	69.1%	40.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	61.8%	68.4%	20.1%	—	39.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	0.5%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	53.3%	70.7%	13.8%	—	26.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	38.2%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	35.4%	58.7%	4.5%	—	16.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	38.5%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	19.0%	60.0%	2.2%	—	7.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	10.4%	55.7%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	9.8%	45.1%	1.2%	—	13.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	10.0%	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	7.4%	46.9%	1.3%	—	14.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	6.5%	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	11.4%	24.7%	2.0%	—	9.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	7.9%	16.8%	0.0%	—	7.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	9.4%	25.1%	0.7%	—	11.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	8.2%	31.4%	0.5%	—	10.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	8.0%	37.7%	0.5%	4.3%	6.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	4.9%	34.9%	0.2%	—	4.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	5.3%	36.8%	0.1%	6.5%	1.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	9.2%	31.2%	0.2%	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	13.0%	33.1%	0.5%	5.9%	4.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	10.5%	32.5%	0.4%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	8.3%	37.6%	0.3%	3.7%	0.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.6%	17.0%	0.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2970
ICON	50%	74.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2500
IFS HRES	40%	73.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1576
IFS Ensemble	37%	73.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1391
National Blend	35%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1232
AIFS Single	29%	71.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0818
WeatherNext 2	14%	70.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0199

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗