KMEM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

40%

37%

29%

14%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 32.0¢Risks 32.05u

WN2NO 68.0¢Risks 67.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +67.95u · WN2 −67.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:56+00:00	55.2%	55.5%	66.1%	66.5%	79.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	55.2%	57.7%	66.1%	66.5%	79.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	55.2%	57.7%	50.0%	66.5%	79.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	55.2%	57.7%	50.0%	66.5%	79.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	55.2%	57.7%	50.0%	66.5%	79.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	55.2%	57.7%	50.0%	66.5%	79.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	55.2%	57.7%	50.0%	59.6%	86.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	55.2%	57.7%	50.0%	59.6%	86.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	55.2%	57.7%	50.0%	59.6%	86.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	55.2%	57.7%	50.0%	59.6%	86.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	55.2%	57.7%	55.2%	59.6%	86.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	55.2%	57.7%	55.2%	59.6%	86.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	55.2%	57.7%	55.2%	59.6%	86.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	55.2%	57.7%	55.2%	59.6%	86.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	52.3%	57.7%	55.2%	59.6%	86.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	52.3%	57.7%	55.2%	59.6%	86.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	52.3%	57.7%	55.2%	59.6%	86.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:42+00:00	29.3%	65.3%	32.2%	47.9%	69.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	29.3%	65.3%	32.2%	47.9%	69.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	29.3%	65.3%	32.2%	47.9%	69.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	29.3%	65.3%	32.2%	47.9%	69.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	29.3%	65.3%	32.2%	47.9%	69.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	29.3%	65.3%	32.2%	47.9%	69.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	30.9%	65.3%	32.2%	47.9%	49.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	30.9%	65.3%	32.2%	47.9%	49.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	30.9%	65.3%	32.2%	47.9%	49.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	30.9%	65.3%	32.2%	47.9%	49.2%
2026-10-14T10:32:44+00:00	30.9%	65.3%	32.2%	39.7%	49.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:49+00:00	30.9%	37.3%	14.1%	39.7%	49.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	30.9%	37.3%	14.1%	39.7%	49.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	30.9%	37.3%	14.1%	39.7%	49.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	28.6%	37.3%	14.1%	39.7%	49.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	28.6%	37.3%	14.1%	39.7%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2970
ICON	50%	74.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2500
IFS HRES	40%	73.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1576
IFS Ensemble	37%	73.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1391
National Blend	35%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1232
AIFS Single	29%	71.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0818
WeatherNext 2	14%	70.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0199

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗