KMEM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

45%

34%

17%

17%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 36.9¢Risks 36.90u

AIFSNO 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +63.10u · AIFS −63.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	50.0%	16.6%	5.2%	—	31.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	52.2%	56.6%	8.7%	—	47.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	51.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	66.3%	54.6%	27.0%	—	35.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	46.0%	53.2%	10.8%	—	25.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	0.1%	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	36.9%	55.0%	6.6%	—	14.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	23.3%	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	20.8%	41.3%	1.7%	—	7.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	22.9%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	9.0%	41.8%	0.7%	—	2.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	4.2%	37.0%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	3.8%	27.1%	0.3%	—	5.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	3.8%	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.5%	27.6%	0.3%	—	5.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.0%	18.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	4.0%	10.9%	0.5%	—	3.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	6.3%	0.0%	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.9%	10.5%	0.1%	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.3%	13.9%	0.1%	—	3.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.1%	17.4%	0.1%	0.9%	1.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.1%	15.0%	0.0%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	15.7%	0.0%	1.4%	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.1%	11.8%	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	12.2%	0.1%	1.1%	0.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.2%	11.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	13.4%	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	3.7%	0.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	57%	77.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.3215
National Blend	55%	77.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2992
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
IFS Ensemble	45%	76.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2007
IFS HRES	34%	74.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1190
WeatherNext 2	17%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0296
AIFS Single	17%	71.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0292

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗