KMEM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

45%

34%

17%

17%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 36.9¢Risks 36.90u

AIFSNO 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +63.10u · AIFS −63.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:48+00:00	37.4%	43.7%	38.0%	47.6%	79.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	37.4%	43.7%	36.3%	47.6%	79.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	37.4%	43.7%	36.3%	47.6%	79.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	37.4%	43.7%	36.3%	47.6%	79.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	37.4%	43.7%	36.3%	47.6%	79.1%
2026-10-13T08:03:17+00:00	24.4%	43.7%	36.3%	34.5%	64.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	24.4%	43.7%	36.3%	34.5%	64.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	24.4%	43.7%	36.3%	34.5%	64.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	24.4%	43.7%	36.3%	34.5%	64.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	24.4%	40.6%	16.3%	34.5%	64.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	24.4%	40.6%	16.3%	34.5%	64.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	24.4%	40.6%	16.3%	34.5%	64.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	24.4%	40.6%	16.3%	34.5%	64.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	23.4%	40.6%	16.5%	34.5%	63.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	23.4%	44.8%	16.5%	34.5%	63.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	23.4%	44.8%	16.5%	34.5%	63.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	23.4%	44.8%	16.5%	34.7%	63.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	23.4%	44.8%	14.8%	34.7%	63.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	23.4%	44.8%	14.8%	34.7%	63.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	23.4%	44.8%	14.8%	34.7%	63.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	26.6%	44.8%	14.8%	34.7%	56.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	26.6%	44.8%	14.8%	34.7%	56.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	26.6%	44.8%	14.8%	34.7%	56.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:15+00:00	26.6%	44.8%	14.8%	34.7%	56.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	26.6%	44.8%	14.8%	34.7%	56.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	26.6%	44.8%	17.2%	34.5%	56.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	26.6%	44.8%	17.2%	34.5%	56.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	26.6%	44.8%	17.2%	34.5%	56.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	17.1%	44.8%	17.2%	34.5%	56.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	17.1%	44.8%	17.2%	34.5%	56.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	57%	77.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.3215
National Blend	55%	77.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2992
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
IFS Ensemble	45%	76.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2007
IFS HRES	34%	74.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1190
WeatherNext 2	17%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0296
AIFS Single	17%	71.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0292

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗