KMEM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

34%

18%

16%

15%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.9¢Risks 25.90u

HRESNO 74.1¢Risks 74.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.10u · HRES −74.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	16.8%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	7.2%	78.7%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	61.1%	18.9%	8.7%	—	57.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	72.8%	59.4%	21.5%	—	54.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	69.7%	27.0%	32.3%	—	41.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	49.2%	78.8%	14.0%	—	26.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	0.8%	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	31.5%	63.9%	5.1%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	9.5%	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	29.9%	55.2%	5.9%	—	29.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	18.4%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	28.9%	33.0%	4.1%	—	28.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	30.9%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	23.2%	36.6%	5.1%	—	27.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	30.8%	26.5%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	31.2%	34.0%	2.1%	—	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	32.6%	37.5%	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	24.7%	40.3%	2.9%	0.0%	20.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	24.9%	36.7%	0.0%	—	17.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	24.2%	39.6%	2.2%	13.4%	10.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	27.3%	38.1%	1.7%	—	13.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	23.6%	38.9%	2.1%	0.0%	15.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	24.8%	38.5%	2.6%	—	7.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	22.0%	40.7%	2.2%	7.4%	4.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	25.3%	37.7%	3.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	30.5%	42.8%	4.7%	16.3%	16.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	28.5%	45.5%	2.7%	—	3.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	19.2%	39.1%	1.8%	7.7%	2.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	25.4%	21.6%	3.4%	—	9.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.3481
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.3125
AIFS Single	37%	75.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1376
IFS Ensemble	34%	75.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1190
WeatherNext 2	18%	73.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0313
ICON	16%	72.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0240
IFS HRES	15%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0216

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗