KMEM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

34%

18%

16%

15%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.9¢Risks 25.90u

HRESNO 74.1¢Risks 74.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.10u · HRES −74.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:53+00:00	39.3%	45.9%	7.8%	19.7%	22.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	39.3%	45.9%	12.9%	19.7%	22.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	39.3%	45.9%	12.9%	19.7%	22.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	39.3%	45.9%	12.9%	19.7%	22.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	39.3%	45.9%	12.9%	19.7%	22.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:11+00:00	38.0%	45.9%	12.9%	29.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	38.0%	45.9%	12.9%	29.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	38.0%	45.9%	12.9%	29.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	38.0%	45.9%	12.9%	29.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:41+00:00	38.0%	42.4%	6.5%	29.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	38.0%	42.4%	6.5%	29.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	38.0%	42.4%	6.5%	29.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	38.0%	42.4%	6.5%	29.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	34.2%	42.6%	6.5%	29.5%	15.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:42+00:00	34.2%	42.6%	6.5%	29.5%	15.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	34.2%	34.5%	6.5%	29.5%	15.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	34.2%	34.5%	6.5%	29.5%	15.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	34.2%	34.5%	4.6%	29.5%	15.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:23+00:00	34.2%	34.5%	4.6%	29.5%	15.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	34.2%	34.5%	4.6%	29.5%	15.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	32.4%	34.5%	4.6%	14.7%	15.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	32.4%	34.5%	4.6%	14.7%	15.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	32.4%	34.5%	4.6%	14.7%	15.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	32.4%	34.5%	4.6%	14.7%	15.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	32.4%	34.5%	4.6%	14.7%	15.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	32.4%	34.5%	5.3%	14.7%	15.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	32.4%	34.5%	5.3%	14.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	32.4%	34.5%	5.3%	14.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	37.1%	34.5%	5.3%	14.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	37.1%	34.5%	5.3%	14.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	37.1%	34.5%	5.3%	14.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	37.1%	34.5%	5.3%	14.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T04:30:38+00:00	37.1%	34.5%	5.3%	14.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	37.1%	34.5%	17.7%	14.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	37.1%	34.5%	17.7%	14.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	37.1%	34.5%	17.7%	14.7%	15.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.3481
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.3125
AIFS Single	37%	75.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1376
IFS Ensemble	34%	75.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1190
WeatherNext 2	18%	73.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0313
ICON	16%	72.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0240
IFS HRES	15%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0216

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗