KMEM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

48%

32%

29%

20%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 44.2¢Risks 44.20u

WN2NO 55.8¢Risks 55.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +55.80u · WN2 −55.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	7.3%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	2.5%	61.3%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	40.3%	7.9%	3.0%	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	52.2%	37.8%	9.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	47.7%	11.8%	15.1%	—	21.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	26.8%	57.9%	4.7%	—	10.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	0.1%	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	13.4%	39.3%	1.2%	—	6.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	11.8%	29.9%	1.3%	—	11.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	5.7%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	10.6%	12.9%	0.8%	—	10.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	11.3%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	7.2%	14.2%	0.9%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	10.5%	8.4%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	10.3%	11.8%	0.2%	—	7.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	10.6%	13.2%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	6.6%	14.3%	0.3%	0.0%	5.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	6.3%	11.8%	0.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	5.7%	12.7%	0.2%	2.4%	1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	6.6%	11.4%	0.1%	—	2.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.9%	11.2%	0.1%	0.0%	2.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.9%	10.3%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.7%	10.7%	0.1%	0.7%	0.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	4.3%	8.6%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.5%	10.2%	0.3%	1.9%	1.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.4%	10.5%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.0%	7.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.8%	2.1%	0.1%	—	0.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	68%	82.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.4624
National Blend	55%	80.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2981
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
IFS HRES	48%	79.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.2266
IFS Ensemble	32%	77.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1011
AIFS Single	29%	76.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0818
WeatherNext 2	20%	75.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0416

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗