KMEM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

48%

32%

29%

20%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 44.2¢Risks 44.20u

WN2NO 55.8¢Risks 55.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +55.80u · WN2 −55.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:29+00:00	35.4%	34.9%	28.6%	69.3%	23.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	35.4%	46.9%	28.6%	69.3%	23.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	35.4%	46.9%	28.6%	69.3%	23.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	17.6%	46.9%	28.6%	69.3%	23.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	17.7%	46.9%	28.7%	69.3%	23.7%
2026-10-12T15:26:57+00:00	17.7%	46.9%	28.7%	69.3%	23.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	17.7%	48.5%	28.7%	69.3%	23.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	17.7%	48.5%	17.7%	69.3%	23.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	17.7%	48.5%	17.7%	69.3%	23.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	17.7%	48.5%	17.7%	69.3%	23.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	17.7%	48.5%	17.7%	69.3%	23.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	14.7%	48.5%	17.7%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	14.7%	48.5%	17.7%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	14.7%	48.5%	17.7%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	14.7%	48.5%	17.7%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	14.7%	48.5%	17.7%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	14.7%	48.5%	17.7%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	14.7%	48.5%	17.7%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	14.7%	48.5%	17.7%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	26.7%	48.5%	17.7%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	26.7%	48.5%	17.7%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	26.7%	48.5%	17.7%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-13T04:15:48+00:00	26.7%	48.5%	17.7%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	26.7%	48.5%	28.0%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	26.7%	48.5%	28.0%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	26.7%	48.5%	28.0%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	26.7%	48.5%	28.0%	65.3%	62.3%
2026-10-13T08:03:17+00:00	43.3%	48.5%	28.0%	42.1%	70.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	43.3%	48.5%	28.0%	42.1%	70.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	43.3%	48.5%	28.0%	42.1%	70.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	43.3%	48.5%	28.0%	42.1%	70.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	43.3%	29.3%	22.8%	42.1%	70.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	43.3%	29.3%	22.8%	42.1%	70.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	43.3%	29.3%	22.8%	42.1%	70.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	43.3%	29.3%	22.8%	42.1%	70.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	37.4%	29.3%	22.9%	42.1%	71.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	37.4%	31.8%	22.9%	42.1%	71.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	37.4%	31.8%	22.9%	42.1%	71.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	37.4%	31.8%	22.9%	42.1%	71.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	37.4%	31.8%	21.0%	42.1%	71.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	37.4%	31.8%	21.0%	42.1%	71.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	37.4%	31.8%	21.0%	42.1%	71.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	44.7%	31.8%	21.0%	42.1%	68.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	44.7%	31.8%	21.0%	42.1%	68.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	44.7%	31.8%	21.0%	42.1%	68.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:15+00:00	44.7%	31.8%	21.0%	42.1%	68.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	44.7%	31.8%	21.0%	47.6%	68.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	44.7%	31.8%	20.4%	47.6%	68.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	44.7%	31.8%	20.4%	47.6%	68.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	44.7%	31.8%	20.4%	47.6%	68.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	28.6%	31.8%	20.4%	47.6%	68.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	28.6%	31.8%	20.4%	47.6%	68.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	68%	82.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.4624
National Blend	55%	80.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2981
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
IFS HRES	48%	79.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.2266
IFS Ensemble	32%	77.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1011
AIFS Single	29%	76.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0818
WeatherNext 2	20%	75.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0416

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗