KMEM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

80%

73%

54%

50%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 68.3¢Risks 68.30u

ICONNO 31.7¢Risks 31.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +31.70u · ICON −31.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	88.4%	—	—	77.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	71.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	55.2%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	45.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.7%	27.7%	58.7%	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	86.7%	9.3%	17.1%	—	66.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	69.0%	74.0%	35.7%	—	61.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	69.1%	90.7%	23.4%	—	43.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	58.7%	42.9%	19.5%	—	58.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	2.0%	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	66.2%	56.6%	21.3%	—	58.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	50.9%	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	70.9%	59.6%	17.8%	—	50.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	64.1%	59.8%	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	55.5%	65.3%	16.6%	—	59.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	52.8%	60.3%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	52.9%	64.3%	11.1%	—	54.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	48.0%	66.5%	—	—	51.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	50.0%	69.7%	11.8%	0.0%	44.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	57.4%	68.4%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	56.5%	63.9%	11.9%	—	55.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	61.1%	64.3%	0.0%	—	43.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	68.0%	64.8%	20.7%	0.0%	34.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	74.7%	67.5%	19.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	77.3%	68.0%	29.8%	43.8%	59.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	82.6%	63.9%	30.2%	—	43.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	77.0%	66.9%	33.1%	46.0%	35.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	73.5%	70.0%	32.5%	—	54.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	78.8%	62.8%	37.2%	55.8%	65.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	71.5%	45.5%	—	38.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	79.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	79.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	78.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	76.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	50%	76.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗