KMEM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

80%

73%

54%

50%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 68.3¢Risks 68.30u

ICONNO 31.7¢Risks 31.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +31.70u · ICON −31.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:03+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	61.5%	71.6%	73.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	61.5%	71.6%	73.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	72.0%	71.6%	73.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	72.0%	71.6%	73.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	72.0%	71.6%	73.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	85.7%	89.6%	72.0%	71.6%	73.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	76.6%	89.6%	72.0%	71.6%	78.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	76.6%	89.6%	72.0%	71.6%	78.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	76.6%	89.6%	72.0%	71.6%	78.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	76.6%	89.6%	72.0%	71.6%	78.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	76.6%	89.6%	61.5%	71.6%	78.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	76.6%	89.6%	61.5%	71.6%	78.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	76.6%	89.6%	61.5%	71.6%	78.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	71.4%	89.6%	61.5%	71.6%	78.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	71.4%	89.6%	61.5%	71.6%	78.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	71.4%	89.6%	61.5%	71.6%	78.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	71.4%	89.6%	61.5%	71.6%	78.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:28+00:00	77.8%	86.0%	53.2%	69.1%	80.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	77.8%	86.0%	53.2%	69.1%	80.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	77.8%	86.0%	53.2%	69.1%	80.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	77.8%	86.0%	63.7%	69.1%	80.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	77.8%	86.0%	63.7%	69.1%	80.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	77.8%	86.0%	63.7%	69.1%	80.6%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	78.4%	86.0%	63.7%	69.1%	68.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:26+00:00	78.4%	86.0%	63.7%	69.1%	68.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	78.4%	86.0%	63.7%	69.1%	68.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	78.4%	86.0%	63.7%	69.1%	68.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	78.4%	86.0%	63.7%	71.2%	68.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:28+00:00	78.4%	86.0%	61.6%	71.2%	68.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:30+00:00	78.4%	86.0%	61.6%	71.2%	68.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	78.4%	86.0%	61.6%	71.2%	68.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	80.3%	86.0%	61.6%	71.2%	68.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	80.3%	86.0%	61.6%	71.2%	68.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	80.3%	86.0%	61.6%	71.2%	68.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	80.3%	86.0%	61.6%	71.2%	68.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:36+00:00	80.3%	86.0%	61.6%	71.2%	68.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	80.3%	86.0%	57.5%	71.2%	68.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	80.3%	86.0%	57.5%	71.2%	68.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	80.3%	86.0%	57.5%	71.2%	68.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:19+00:00	80.0%	86.0%	57.5%	67.3%	59.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	80.0%	86.0%	57.5%	67.3%	59.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	80.0%	86.0%	57.5%	67.3%	59.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	80.0%	86.0%	57.5%	67.3%	59.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	80.0%	86.0%	57.5%	67.3%	59.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	80.0%	87.4%	47.6%	67.3%	59.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	80.0%	87.4%	47.6%	67.3%	59.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	80.0%	87.4%	47.6%	67.3%	59.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	77.3%	87.4%	47.6%	67.3%	59.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	77.3%	86.6%	47.6%	67.3%	59.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:22+00:00	79.9%	73.1%	51.4%	54.3%	61.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	79.9%	73.1%	51.4%	54.3%	61.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	79.9%	73.1%	80.5%	54.3%	61.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	79.9%	73.1%	80.5%	54.3%	61.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	79.9%	73.1%	80.5%	54.3%	61.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	86.6%	73.1%	80.5%	54.3%	50.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	86.6%	73.1%	80.5%	54.3%	50.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	86.6%	73.1%	80.5%	54.3%	50.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	86.6%	73.1%	80.5%	54.3%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	79.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	79.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	78.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	76.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	50%	76.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗