KMEM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

71%

49%

47%

37%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

WN2NO 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.60u · WN2 −45.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:35+00:00	69.6%	71.5%	36.1%	58.9%	50.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	69.6%	71.5%	36.1%	58.9%	50.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	69.6%	71.5%	39.5%	58.9%	50.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	69.6%	71.5%	39.5%	58.9%	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	69.6%	71.5%	39.5%	58.9%	50.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	69.6%	71.5%	39.5%	58.9%	50.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	68.0%	71.5%	39.5%	49.1%	47.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	68.0%	71.5%	39.5%	49.1%	47.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	68.0%	71.5%	39.5%	49.1%	47.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	68.0%	71.5%	39.5%	49.1%	47.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	68.0%	71.5%	37.2%	49.1%	47.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	68.0%	71.6%	37.2%	49.1%	47.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	68.0%	71.6%	37.2%	49.1%	47.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	68.0%	71.6%	37.2%	49.1%	47.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	71.3%	71.6%	37.2%	49.1%	47.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	71.3%	71.6%	37.2%	49.1%	47.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	71.3%	71.6%	37.2%	49.1%	47.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	79.1°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	79.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	77.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	47%	77.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	76.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗