KMEM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

71%

49%

47%

37%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

WN2NO 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.60u · WN2 −45.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	64.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	85.1%	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	48.7%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	22.3%	52.0%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	82.5%	6.7%	13.0%	—	59.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	70.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	62.3%	67.7%	29.1%	—	54.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	62.0%	87.1%	17.9%	—	36.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	50.8%	35.2%	14.5%	—	50.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	1.2%	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	58.3%	48.3%	15.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	42.4%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	62.9%	50.9%	12.7%	—	42.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	55.4%	50.9%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	46.3%	56.4%	11.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	43.4%	50.9%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	43.2%	54.9%	7.2%	—	45.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	38.2%	57.0%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	39.8%	60.2%	7.4%	0.0%	34.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	46.8%	58.4%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	45.6%	53.3%	7.3%	—	44.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	50.0%	53.4%	0.0%	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	57.0%	53.5%	13.4%	0.0%	24.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	64.1%	56.0%	11.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	66.9%	56.2%	19.9%	32.0%	47.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.9%	73.1%	51.3%	20.0%	—	31.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	65.7%	54.0%	22.0%	33.1%	24.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	61.0%	56.9%	21.1%	—	40.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	66.9%	48.5%	24.5%	41.4%	51.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	57.5%	31.1%	—	24.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	79.1°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	79.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	77.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	47%	77.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	76.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗