KMEM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

38%

29%

24%

16%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.5¢Risks 34.45u

WN2NO 65.5¢Risks 65.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.55u · WN2 −65.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:12+00:00	63.1%	36.7%	40.7%	58.4%	68.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	63.1%	36.7%	40.7%	58.4%	68.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	63.1%	36.7%	40.7%	58.4%	68.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	63.1%	36.7%	35.8%	58.4%	68.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	63.1%	36.7%	35.8%	58.4%	68.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	63.1%	36.7%	35.8%	58.4%	68.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	45.6%	36.7%	35.8%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	45.6%	36.7%	35.8%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	45.6%	36.7%	35.8%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	45.6%	36.7%	35.8%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	45.6%	36.7%	35.8%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	45.6%	36.7%	33.4%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	45.6%	36.7%	33.4%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	45.6%	36.7%	33.4%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	51.5%	36.7%	33.4%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	51.5%	36.7%	33.4%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	51.5%	36.7%	33.4%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:05+00:00	51.5%	36.7%	33.4%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	51.5%	36.7%	33.4%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	51.5%	36.7%	39.0%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	51.5%	36.7%	39.0%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	51.5%	36.7%	39.0%	38.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:34+00:00	58.8%	36.7%	39.0%	52.1%	54.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	58.8%	36.7%	39.0%	52.1%	54.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	58.8%	36.7%	39.0%	52.1%	54.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	58.8%	36.7%	39.0%	52.1%	54.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	58.8%	36.7%	39.0%	52.1%	54.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:16+00:00	58.8%	36.7%	33.1%	52.1%	54.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	58.8%	55.9%	33.1%	52.1%	54.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:18+00:00	58.8%	55.9%	33.1%	52.1%	54.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	67.8%	55.9%	33.1%	52.1%	55.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	67.8%	55.9%	33.1%	52.1%	55.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:01+00:00	48.4%	55.9%	33.1%	52.1%	61.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	48.4%	55.9%	31.3%	52.1%	61.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00	48.4%	55.9%	31.3%	52.1%	61.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	48.4%	55.9%	31.3%	52.1%	61.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	51.7%	55.9%	31.3%	52.1%	59.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	51.7%	55.9%	31.3%	52.1%	59.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	51.7%	55.9%	31.3%	52.1%	59.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	51.7%	55.9%	31.3%	52.1%	59.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	51.7%	55.9%	31.3%	52.1%	59.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:15+00:00	51.7%	43.6%	23.4%	52.1%	59.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	51.7%	43.6%	23.4%	52.1%	59.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	51.7%	43.6%	23.4%	52.1%	59.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:25+00:00	54.3%	43.6%	23.4%	46.0%	59.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	54.3%	43.6%	23.4%	46.0%	59.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:53+00:00	53.7%	44.3%	17.9%	31.9%	28.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	53.7%	44.3%	24.7%	31.9%	28.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	53.7%	44.3%	24.7%	31.9%	28.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	53.7%	44.3%	24.7%	31.9%	28.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	53.7%	44.3%	24.7%	31.9%	28.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:11+00:00	52.9%	44.3%	24.7%	40.4%	22.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	52.9%	44.3%	24.7%	40.4%	22.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	52.9%	44.3%	24.7%	40.4%	22.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	52.9%	44.3%	24.7%	40.4%	22.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:41+00:00	52.9%	44.6%	16.7%	40.4%	22.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	52.9%	44.6%	16.7%	40.4%	22.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	52.9%	44.6%	16.7%	40.4%	22.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	52.9%	44.6%	16.7%	40.4%	22.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	49.0%	44.7%	16.7%	40.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:42+00:00	49.0%	44.7%	16.7%	40.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	49.0%	37.4%	16.7%	40.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	49.0%	37.4%	16.7%	40.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	49.0%	37.4%	16.7%	40.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:23+00:00	49.0%	37.4%	16.7%	40.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	49.0%	37.4%	16.7%	40.4%	22.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	45.1%	37.4%	16.7%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	45.1%	37.4%	16.7%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	45.1%	37.4%	16.7%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	45.1%	37.4%	16.7%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	45.1%	37.4%	16.7%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	45.1%	37.4%	14.4%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	45.1%	37.4%	14.4%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	45.1%	37.4%	14.4%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	49.0%	37.4%	14.4%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	49.0%	37.4%	14.4%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	49.0%	37.4%	14.4%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	49.0%	37.4%	14.4%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:38+00:00	49.0%	37.4%	14.4%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	49.0%	37.4%	25.9%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	49.0%	37.4%	25.9%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	49.0%	37.4%	25.9%	29.6%	31.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:02+00:00	54.0%	37.4%	25.9%	45.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	54.0%	37.4%	25.9%	45.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	54.0%	37.4%	25.9%	45.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	54.0%	37.4%	25.9%	45.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00	54.0%	37.4%	25.9%	45.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	54.0%	41.5%	22.5%	45.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	54.0%	41.5%	22.5%	45.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	54.0%	41.5%	22.5%	45.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	42.0%	41.5%	22.5%	45.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	41.9%	41.5%	22.5%	45.7%	30.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	41.9%	37.9%	22.5%	45.7%	30.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	41.9%	37.9%	22.5%	45.7%	30.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	41.9%	37.9%	22.5%	45.7%	30.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	41.9%	37.9%	13.6%	45.7%	30.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	41.9%	37.9%	13.6%	45.7%	30.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	41.9%	37.9%	13.6%	45.7%	30.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	42.9%	37.9%	13.6%	24.2%	28.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	42.9%	37.9%	13.6%	24.2%	28.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	42.9%	37.9%	13.6%	24.2%	28.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	42.9%	37.9%	13.6%	24.2%	28.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	42.9%	37.9%	13.6%	24.2%	28.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	42.9%	37.9%	15.9%	24.2%	28.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	42.9%	37.9%	15.9%	24.2%	28.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	42.9%	37.9%	15.9%	24.2%	28.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	53.0%	37.9%	15.9%	24.2%	28.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	53.0%	37.9%	15.9%	24.2%	28.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	53.0%	37.9%	15.9%	24.2%	28.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	79.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	78.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	29%	77.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	76.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	76.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗