KMEM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

38%

29%

24%

16%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.5¢Risks 34.45u

WN2NO 65.5¢Risks 65.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.55u · WN2 −65.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	76.6%	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	36.0%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	13.5%	38.7%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	72.0%	3.2%	6.9%	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	47.8%	53.6%	17.9%	—	39.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	46.9%	77.2%	9.7%	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	35.2%	21.8%	7.2%	—	35.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	0.4%	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	41.7%	32.2%	7.7%	—	33.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	26.7%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	45.6%	33.8%	5.7%	—	26.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	37.6%	33.4%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	28.9%	38.2%	4.8%	—	32.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	26.1%	32.6%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	25.5%	35.7%	2.5%	—	27.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	21.1%	37.2%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	21.9%	39.8%	2.5%	0.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	27.1%	37.5%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	25.5%	32.1%	2.3%	—	24.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	28.6%	31.5%	0.0%	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	34.1%	31.0%	4.5%	0.0%	10.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	40.5%	32.5%	3.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	42.6%	32.0%	7.1%	13.7%	24.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	48.7%	26.9%	6.8%	—	12.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	39.4%	28.4%	7.4%	13.4%	8.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	33.8%	30.0%	6.7%	—	17.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	38.6%	22.2%	7.8%	17.2%	24.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	28.5%	10.5%	—	7.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	79.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	78.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	29%	77.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	76.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	76.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗