KMEM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

51%

49%

49%

41%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.3¢Risks 56.30u

WN2NO 43.7¢Risks 43.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.70u · WN2 −43.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	45.3%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	13.2%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	6.9%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	18.9%	39.3%	—	—	56.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	54.9%	65.1%	3.0%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	54.4%	47.1%	21.5%	—	51.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	62.0%	47.7%	20.5%	—	48.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	57.9%	48.4%	7.5%	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	1.5%	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	48.3%	52.5%	12.9%	—	49.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	31.1%	47.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	43.9%	50.9%	9.7%	—	44.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	45.5%	56.3%	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	48.2%	55.5%	9.0%	—	33.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	41.5%	54.7%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	54.9%	53.9%	6.2%	—	41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	48.0%	58.0%	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	34.0%	53.1%	9.4%	—	21.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	39.5%	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	48.9%	56.5%	10.4%	—	37.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	48.9%	56.7%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	54.6%	57.0%	8.5%	0.0%	27.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	57.2%	51.2%	8.2%	—	33.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	61.1%	61.1%	21.7%	40.1%	48.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	63.9%	18.2%	—	24.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	81.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	51%	79.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	79.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	79.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	78.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗