KMEM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

51%

49%

49%

41%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.3¢Risks 56.30u

WN2NO 43.7¢Risks 43.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.70u · WN2 −43.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:36+00:00	74.7%	69.1%	51.0%	64.8%	66.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	74.7%	69.1%	51.0%	64.8%	66.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	74.7%	69.1%	51.0%	64.8%	66.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	74.7%	69.1%	51.0%	64.8%	66.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:19+00:00	70.0%	69.1%	51.0%	58.7%	58.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	70.0%	69.1%	51.0%	58.7%	58.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	70.0%	69.1%	51.0%	58.7%	58.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	70.0%	69.1%	51.0%	58.7%	58.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	70.0%	69.1%	51.0%	58.7%	58.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	70.0%	73.9%	39.4%	58.7%	58.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	70.0%	73.9%	39.4%	58.7%	58.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	70.0%	73.9%	39.4%	58.7%	58.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	66.9%	73.9%	39.4%	58.7%	58.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	66.8%	73.9%	39.4%	58.7%	58.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	66.8%	67.8%	39.4%	58.7%	58.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	66.8%	67.8%	39.4%	58.7%	58.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	66.8%	67.8%	42.6%	58.7%	58.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	66.8%	67.8%	42.6%	58.7%	58.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	66.8%	67.8%	42.6%	58.7%	58.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	66.8%	67.8%	42.6%	58.7%	58.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	62.8%	67.8%	42.6%	47.6%	62.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	62.8%	67.8%	42.6%	47.6%	62.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	62.8%	67.8%	42.6%	47.6%	62.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	62.8%	67.8%	42.6%	47.6%	62.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	62.8%	67.8%	37.4%	47.6%	62.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	62.8%	67.8%	37.4%	47.6%	62.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	62.8%	67.8%	37.4%	47.6%	62.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	62.8%	67.8%	37.4%	47.6%	62.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	63.6%	67.8%	37.4%	47.6%	62.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	63.6%	67.8%	37.4%	47.6%	62.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	63.6%	67.8%	37.4%	47.6%	62.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:42+00:00	59.3%	64.0%	35.0%	58.0%	61.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	59.3%	55.8%	35.0%	58.0%	61.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	59.3%	55.8%	35.0%	58.0%	61.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	59.3%	55.8%	37.2%	58.0%	61.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:23+00:00	59.3%	55.8%	37.2%	58.0%	61.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	59.3%	55.8%	37.2%	58.0%	61.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	59.3%	55.8%	37.2%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	59.3%	55.8%	37.2%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	59.3%	55.8%	37.2%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	59.3%	55.8%	37.2%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	59.3%	55.8%	37.2%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	59.3%	55.8%	31.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	59.3%	55.8%	31.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	59.3%	55.8%	31.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	62.8%	55.8%	31.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	62.8%	55.8%	31.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	62.8%	55.8%	31.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	62.8%	55.8%	31.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:38+00:00	62.8%	55.8%	31.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	62.8%	55.8%	46.5%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	62.8%	55.8%	46.5%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	62.8%	55.8%	46.5%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:02+00:00	68.9%	55.8%	46.5%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	68.9%	55.8%	46.5%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	68.9%	55.8%	46.5%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	68.9%	55.8%	46.5%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00	68.9%	55.8%	46.5%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	68.9%	52.6%	47.4%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	68.9%	52.6%	47.4%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	68.9%	52.6%	47.4%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	60.7%	52.6%	47.4%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	60.7%	52.6%	47.4%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	60.7%	48.7%	47.4%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	60.7%	48.7%	47.4%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	60.7%	48.7%	47.4%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	60.7%	48.7%	41.1%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	60.7%	48.7%	41.1%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	60.7%	48.7%	41.1%	59.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	62.6%	48.7%	41.1%	49.0%	51.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	62.6%	48.7%	41.1%	49.0%	51.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	62.6%	48.7%	41.1%	49.0%	51.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	62.6%	48.7%	41.1%	49.0%	51.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	62.6%	48.7%	41.1%	49.0%	51.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	62.6%	48.7%	41.1%	49.0%	51.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	62.6%	48.7%	41.1%	49.0%	51.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	62.6%	48.7%	41.1%	49.0%	51.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	71.5%	48.7%	41.1%	49.0%	51.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	71.5%	48.7%	41.1%	49.0%	51.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	71.5%	48.7%	41.1%	49.0%	51.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	81.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	51%	79.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	79.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	79.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	78.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗