KMEM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

41%

40%

36%

16%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 29.2¢Risks 29.25u

WN2NO 70.8¢Risks 70.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.75u · WN2 −70.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	34.0%	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	7.6%	—	—	52.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	3.5%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	11.1%	27.1%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	40.9%	51.4%	1.3%	—	28.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	39.9%	33.0%	12.4%	—	37.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	46.9%	33.0%	11.4%	—	33.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	42.1%	33.0%	3.3%	—	26.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	0.5%	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	32.2%	36.1%	6.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	17.8%	31.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	27.7%	33.8%	4.1%	—	28.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	28.7%	38.5%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	30.6%	37.3%	3.6%	—	19.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	24.6%	36.1%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	35.7%	34.8%	2.1%	—	24.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	29.1%	38.2%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	17.6%	33.0%	3.4%	—	9.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	21.3%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	28.2%	35.1%	3.5%	—	19.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	27.6%	34.6%	0.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	32.0%	34.1%	2.5%	0.0%	11.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	33.6%	28.3%	2.3%	—	15.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	36.5%	36.5%	8.0%	19.1%	25.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	38.5%	6.0%	—	9.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	39.4%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	42%	80.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	80.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	80.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	80.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	78.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗