KMEM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

41%

40%

36%

16%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 29.2¢Risks 29.25u

WN2NO 70.8¢Risks 70.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.75u · WN2 −70.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:20:49+00:00	69.1%	44.6%	45.2%	50.0%	39.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	69.1%	44.6%	45.2%	50.0%	39.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	69.1%	44.6%	45.2%	50.0%	39.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	58.5%	44.6%	45.2%	50.0%	39.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	58.5%	44.6%	45.2%	50.0%	39.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:13+00:00	58.5%	46.8%	45.2%	50.0%	39.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	58.5%	46.8%	45.2%	50.0%	39.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	58.5%	46.8%	45.2%	50.0%	39.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	58.5%	46.8%	41.3%	50.0%	39.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	58.5%	46.8%	41.3%	50.0%	39.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	58.5%	46.8%	41.3%	50.0%	39.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	50.0%	46.8%	41.3%	43.7%	63.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	50.0%	46.8%	41.3%	43.7%	63.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	50.0%	46.8%	41.3%	43.7%	63.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	50.0%	46.8%	41.3%	43.7%	63.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	50.0%	46.8%	41.3%	43.7%	63.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	50.0%	46.8%	38.2%	43.7%	63.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	50.0%	46.8%	38.2%	43.7%	63.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	50.0%	46.8%	38.2%	43.7%	63.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	48.6%	46.8%	38.2%	43.7%	63.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	48.6%	46.8%	38.2%	43.7%	63.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	48.6%	46.8%	38.2%	43.7%	63.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:03+00:00	55.2%	34.2%	38.2%	48.2%	62.2%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	55.2%	34.2%	38.2%	48.2%	62.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	55.2%	34.2%	44.9%	48.2%	62.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	55.2%	34.2%	44.9%	48.2%	62.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	55.2%	34.2%	44.9%	48.2%	62.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	55.2%	34.2%	44.9%	48.2%	62.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	58.1%	34.2%	44.9%	44.6%	67.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	58.1%	34.2%	44.9%	44.6%	67.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	58.1%	34.2%	44.9%	44.6%	67.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	58.1%	34.2%	44.9%	44.6%	67.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	58.1%	34.2%	35.0%	44.6%	67.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	58.1%	34.2%	35.0%	44.6%	67.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	58.1%	34.2%	35.0%	44.6%	67.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	58.1%	34.2%	35.0%	44.6%	67.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	58.1%	34.2%	35.0%	44.6%	67.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	58.1%	34.2%	35.0%	44.6%	67.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	58.1%	34.2%	35.0%	44.6%	67.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:01+00:00	58.1%	34.2%	35.0%	44.6%	67.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	58.1%	34.2%	33.4%	44.6%	67.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00	58.1%	34.2%	33.4%	44.6%	67.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	58.1%	34.2%	33.4%	44.6%	67.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	54.8%	34.2%	33.4%	44.6%	61.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	54.8%	34.2%	33.4%	44.6%	61.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	54.8%	34.2%	33.4%	44.6%	61.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	54.8%	34.2%	33.4%	44.6%	61.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	54.8%	34.2%	33.4%	44.6%	61.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:15+00:00	54.8%	34.8%	26.3%	44.6%	61.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	54.8%	34.8%	26.3%	44.6%	61.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	54.8%	34.8%	26.3%	44.6%	61.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:25+00:00	58.0%	34.8%	26.3%	40.4%	61.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	58.0%	34.8%	26.3%	40.4%	61.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:28+00:00	58.0%	36.9%	26.3%	40.4%	61.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	58.0%	36.9%	26.3%	40.4%	61.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	58.0%	36.9%	26.3%	40.4%	61.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	58.0%	36.9%	32.2%	40.4%	61.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	58.0%	36.9%	32.2%	40.4%	61.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	58.0%	36.9%	32.2%	40.4%	61.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	58.0%	36.9%	32.2%	40.4%	53.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:26+00:00	58.0%	36.9%	32.2%	40.4%	53.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	58.0%	36.9%	32.2%	40.4%	53.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	58.0%	36.9%	32.2%	40.4%	53.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	58.0%	36.9%	32.2%	51.4%	53.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:28+00:00	58.0%	36.9%	32.2%	51.4%	53.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:30+00:00	58.0%	36.9%	32.2%	51.4%	53.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	58.0%	36.9%	32.2%	51.4%	53.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	60.3%	36.9%	32.2%	51.4%	53.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	60.3%	36.9%	32.2%	51.4%	53.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	60.3%	36.9%	32.2%	51.4%	53.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	60.3%	36.9%	32.2%	51.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:53+00:00	46.5%	37.9%	19.5%	32.3%	45.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	46.5%	37.9%	26.9%	32.3%	45.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	46.5%	37.9%	26.9%	32.3%	45.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	46.5%	37.9%	26.9%	32.3%	45.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	46.5%	37.9%	26.9%	32.3%	45.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:11+00:00	43.5%	37.9%	26.9%	40.3%	42.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	43.5%	37.9%	26.9%	40.3%	42.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	43.5%	37.9%	26.9%	40.3%	42.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	43.5%	37.9%	26.9%	40.3%	42.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:41+00:00	43.5%	35.6%	16.4%	40.3%	42.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	43.5%	35.6%	16.4%	40.3%	42.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	43.5%	35.6%	16.4%	40.3%	42.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	43.5%	35.6%	16.4%	40.3%	42.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	40.7%	36.0%	16.4%	40.3%	42.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	42%	80.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	80.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	80.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	80.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	78.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗