KMEM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

26%

16%

15%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.1¢Risks 23.15u

ICONNO 76.8¢Risks 76.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.85u · ICON −76.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	24.0%	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	4.0%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	1.6%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	5.9%	17.1%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	28.1%	37.6%	0.5%	—	17.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	26.6%	21.0%	6.4%	—	24.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	32.3%	20.5%	5.6%	—	21.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	27.4%	20.1%	1.2%	—	15.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	0.1%	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	18.9%	21.9%	2.5%	—	19.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	8.8%	17.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	15.1%	19.6%	1.5%	—	15.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	15.5%	22.9%	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	16.6%	21.6%	1.2%	—	9.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	12.2%	20.3%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	19.7%	19.0%	0.6%	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	14.6%	21.1%	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	7.4%	17.0%	0.9%	—	3.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	9.2%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	13.1%	17.6%	0.9%	—	7.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	12.3%	16.8%	0.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	14.7%	16.0%	0.5%	0.0%	3.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	15.2%	11.9%	0.5%	—	5.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	16.6%	16.6%	2.1%	6.7%	10.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	17.4%	1.4%	—	2.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	35%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	81.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	80.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	80.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	79.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 84°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗