KMEM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

84%

84%

79%

75%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 80.8¢Risks 40.42u

ICONNO 19.1¢Risks 9.57u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +9.57u · ICON −9.57u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	74.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	—	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	77.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	73.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	68.2%	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	92.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	92.7%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	11.4%	69.4%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	76.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	87.8%	73.1%	16.2%	—	74.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	76.8%	74.6%	43.4%	—	63.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	75.5%	79.5%	50.0%	—	75.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	71.2%	75.8%	38.2%	—	64.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	4.7%	81.6%	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	60.7%	74.9%	25.1%	—	56.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	46.6%	79.9%	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	63.7%	79.2%	29.1%	—	61.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	64.9%	82.2%	—	—	49.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	64.4%	77.0%	23.0%	—	44.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	67.4%	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	75.3%	82.9%	28.7%	—	61.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	82.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	71.5%	81.7%	30.3%	—	52.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	77.2%	85.0%	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	76.2%	86.9%	40.3%	64.9%	67.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	87.7%	0.0%	—	51.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	82.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	80.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	80.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	80.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	75%	79.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗