KMEM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

59%

56%

51%

47%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

HRESNO 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.30u · HRES −40.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	43.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	56.3%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	87.0%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	6.2%	56.7%	—	—	63.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	79.1%	60.4%	9.0%	—	61.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	64.3%	61.6%	29.7%	—	49.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	62.0%	67.0%	35.1%	—	62.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	60.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	56.4%	61.8%	24.2%	—	49.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	1.8%	68.8%	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	44.2%	59.9%	13.8%	—	40.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	30.3%	65.8%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	46.5%	64.6%	16.1%	—	43.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	47.3%	68.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	46.3%	60.9%	11.5%	—	27.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	49.0%	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	57.7%	67.8%	14.7%	—	42.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	51.0%	66.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	52.1%	65.1%	15.1%	—	32.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	58.4%	69.3%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	56.5%	71.8%	21.3%	43.5%	46.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	72.4%	0.0%	—	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	82.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	59%	80.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	79.9°F	2.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	79.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	79.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗