KMEM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

59%

56%

51%

47%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

HRESNO 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.30u · HRES −40.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:38+00:00	61.1%	61.6%	44.7%	39.7%	60.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	61.1%	61.6%	54.3%	39.7%	60.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	61.1%	61.6%	54.3%	39.7%	60.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	61.1%	61.6%	54.3%	39.7%	60.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00	70.5%	61.6%	54.3%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	70.5%	61.6%	54.3%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	70.5%	61.6%	54.3%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	70.5%	61.6%	54.3%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00	70.5%	61.6%	54.3%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	70.5%	58.7%	58.2%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	70.5%	58.7%	58.2%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	70.5%	58.7%	58.2%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	62.8%	58.7%	58.2%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	62.9%	58.7%	58.3%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	62.9%	55.8%	58.3%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	62.9%	55.8%	58.3%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	62.9%	55.8%	58.3%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	62.9%	55.8%	46.4%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	62.9%	55.8%	46.4%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	62.9%	55.8%	46.4%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	66.4%	55.8%	46.4%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	66.4%	55.8%	46.4%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	66.4%	55.8%	46.4%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	66.4%	55.8%	46.4%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	66.4%	55.8%	46.4%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	66.4%	55.8%	51.2%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	66.4%	55.8%	51.2%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	66.4%	55.8%	51.2%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	72.1%	55.8%	51.2%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	72.1%	55.8%	51.2%	47.3%	58.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	72.1%	55.8%	51.2%	47.3%	58.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	82.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	59%	80.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	79.9°F	2.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	79.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	79.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗