KMEM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

34%

27%

24%

23%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.2¢Risks 34.20u

ICONNO 65.8¢Risks 65.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.80u · ICON −65.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	37.6%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	73.8%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	2.0%	36.7%	—	—	43.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	61.1%	39.6%	3.1%	—	40.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	42.7%	39.9%	14.0%	—	28.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	39.4%	44.7%	16.9%	—	39.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	33.0%	38.2%	9.7%	—	26.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	0.4%	45.1%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	21.9%	35.3%	4.3%	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	12.3%	40.7%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	22.8%	38.8%	5.0%	—	20.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	22.9%	42.0%	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	21.6%	33.9%	2.9%	—	9.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	23.1%	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	29.6%	39.4%	3.8%	—	17.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	23.4%	37.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	23.5%	34.9%	3.5%	—	10.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	27.9%	38.5%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	25.5%	40.3%	5.3%	16.2%	18.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	40.0%	0.0%	—	8.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	45%	82.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	80.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	27%	80.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	80.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	79.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261022-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 83°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗