KMEM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

34%

27%

24%

23%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.2¢Risks 34.20u

ICONNO 65.8¢Risks 65.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.80u · ICON −65.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:16+00:00	63.2%	51.2%	48.4%	48.1%	22.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	63.2%	45.0%	48.4%	48.1%	22.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:18+00:00	63.2%	45.0%	48.4%	48.1%	22.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	55.6%	45.0%	48.4%	48.1%	22.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	55.6%	45.0%	48.4%	48.1%	22.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:03+00:00	55.6%	45.0%	48.4%	48.1%	22.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	55.6%	45.0%	48.4%	48.1%	22.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	55.6%	45.0%	46.1%	48.1%	22.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	55.6%	45.0%	46.1%	48.1%	22.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	55.6%	45.0%	46.1%	48.1%	22.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	55.6%	45.0%	46.1%	48.1%	22.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	65.0%	45.0%	46.1%	51.9%	73.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	65.0%	45.0%	46.1%	51.9%	73.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	65.0%	45.0%	46.1%	51.9%	73.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	65.0%	45.0%	46.1%	51.9%	73.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	65.0%	45.0%	43.0%	51.9%	73.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	65.0%	45.0%	43.0%	51.9%	73.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	65.0%	45.0%	43.0%	51.9%	73.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	59.7%	45.0%	43.0%	51.9%	73.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	59.7%	45.0%	43.0%	51.9%	73.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	59.7%	45.0%	43.0%	51.9%	73.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	59.7%	45.0%	43.0%	51.9%	73.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:02+00:00	59.7%	45.0%	43.0%	51.9%	73.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	59.7%	45.0%	41.4%	51.9%	73.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00	59.7%	45.0%	41.4%	51.9%	73.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	59.7%	45.0%	41.4%	51.9%	73.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	63.1%	45.0%	41.4%	51.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	63.1%	45.0%	41.4%	51.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	63.1%	45.0%	41.4%	51.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	63.1%	45.0%	41.4%	51.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	63.1%	45.0%	41.4%	51.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:15+00:00	63.1%	23.3%	38.2%	51.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	63.1%	23.3%	38.2%	51.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	63.1%	23.3%	38.2%	51.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:25+00:00	62.4%	23.3%	38.2%	40.4%	64.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	62.3%	23.3%	38.2%	40.4%	64.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:38+00:00	35.6%	20.8%	17.4%	19.5%	36.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	35.6%	20.8%	24.3%	19.5%	36.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	35.6%	20.8%	24.3%	19.5%	36.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	35.6%	20.8%	24.3%	19.5%	36.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00	43.5%	20.8%	24.3%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	43.5%	20.8%	24.3%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	43.5%	20.8%	24.3%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	43.5%	20.8%	24.3%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00	43.5%	20.8%	24.3%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	43.5%	18.9%	24.7%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	43.5%	18.9%	24.7%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	43.5%	18.9%	24.7%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	35.4%	18.9%	24.7%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	35.4%	18.9%	24.7%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	35.4%	17.0%	24.7%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	35.4%	17.0%	24.7%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	35.4%	17.0%	24.7%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	35.4%	17.0%	16.3%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	35.4%	17.0%	16.3%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	35.4%	17.0%	16.3%	30.3%	35.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	38.9%	17.0%	16.3%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	38.9%	17.0%	16.3%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	38.9%	17.0%	16.3%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	38.9%	17.0%	16.3%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	38.9%	17.0%	16.3%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	38.9%	17.0%	19.4%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	38.9%	17.0%	19.4%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	38.9%	17.0%	19.4%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	45.3%	17.0%	19.4%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	45.3%	17.0%	19.4%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	45.3%	17.0%	19.4%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:24+00:00	45.3%	17.0%	19.4%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	45.3%	17.0%	19.4%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	45.3%	17.0%	36.0%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	45.3%	17.0%	36.0%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	45.3%	17.0%	36.0%	23.0%	29.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	45.1%	17.0%	36.0%	23.0%	22.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	45.1%	17.0%	36.0%	23.0%	22.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	45.1%	17.0%	36.0%	23.0%	22.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	45.1%	17.0%	36.0%	23.0%	22.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00	45.1%	24.2%	27.0%	33.9%	22.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	45.1%	24.2%	27.0%	33.9%	22.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	45.1%	24.2%	27.0%	33.9%	22.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	45.1%	24.2%	27.0%	33.9%	22.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00	45.1%	23.8%	26.9%	33.9%	23.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	45.1%	23.8%	26.9%	33.9%	23.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	45%	82.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	80.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	27%	80.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	80.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	79.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261022-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 83°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗