KMEM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

31%

23%

22%

18%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 27.8¢Risks 13.90u

WN2NO 72.2¢Risks 36.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +36.10u · WN2 −36.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	31.8%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	68.2%	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	1.3%	30.6%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	54.2%	33.0%	2.1%	—	34.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	35.7%	33.0%	10.3%	—	22.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	32.3%	37.2%	12.5%	—	32.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	26.1%	30.9%	6.7%	—	20.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	0.2%	37.2%	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	16.2%	27.9%	2.7%	—	13.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	8.5%	32.6%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	16.7%	30.7%	3.1%	—	15.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	16.6%	33.4%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	15.4%	25.9%	1.7%	—	6.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	16.5%	27.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	21.8%	30.4%	2.1%	—	12.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	16.4%	28.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	16.3%	25.9%	1.9%	—	6.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	19.8%	28.8%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	17.6%	30.1%	2.9%	10.4%	11.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	29.6%	0.0%	—	4.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	37%	81.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	81.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	79.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	81.3°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	79.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261022-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗