KMEM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

31%

23%

22%

18%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 27.8¢Risks 13.90u

WN2NO 72.2¢Risks 36.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +36.10u · WN2 −36.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:34+00:00	56.4%	39.6%	39.8%	41.9%	19.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	56.4%	39.6%	39.8%	41.9%	19.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	56.4%	39.6%	39.8%	41.9%	19.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	56.4%	39.6%	39.8%	41.9%	19.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	56.4%	39.6%	39.8%	41.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:28+00:00	55.1%	15.4%	30.4%	34.7%	59.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	55.1%	15.3%	30.4%	34.7%	59.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	55.1%	15.3%	30.4%	34.7%	59.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	55.1%	15.3%	30.4%	34.7%	59.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	55.1%	15.3%	30.4%	34.7%	59.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	55.1%	15.3%	30.4%	34.7%	59.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	52.9%	15.3%	30.4%	34.7%	57.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:26+00:00	52.9%	15.3%	30.4%	34.7%	57.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	52.9%	15.3%	30.4%	34.7%	57.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	52.9%	15.3%	30.4%	34.7%	57.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	52.9%	15.3%	30.4%	44.0%	57.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:28+00:00	52.9%	15.3%	31.1%	44.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:30+00:00	52.9%	15.3%	31.1%	44.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	52.9%	15.3%	31.1%	44.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	54.4%	15.3%	31.1%	44.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	54.4%	15.3%	31.1%	44.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	54.4%	15.3%	31.1%	44.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	54.4%	15.3%	31.1%	44.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:37+00:00	54.4%	15.3%	31.1%	44.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	54.4%	15.3%	30.4%	44.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	54.4%	15.3%	30.4%	44.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	54.4%	15.3%	30.4%	44.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:19+00:00	43.6%	15.3%	30.4%	38.4%	46.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	43.6%	15.3%	30.4%	38.4%	46.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	43.6%	15.3%	30.4%	38.4%	46.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	43.6%	15.3%	30.4%	38.4%	46.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	43.6%	15.3%	30.4%	38.4%	46.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	43.6%	25.2%	23.3%	38.4%	46.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	43.6%	25.2%	23.3%	38.4%	46.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	43.6%	25.2%	23.3%	38.4%	46.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	38.1%	25.2%	23.3%	38.4%	46.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	38.1%	25.2%	23.3%	38.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	38.1%	21.6%	23.3%	38.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	38.1%	21.6%	23.3%	38.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	38.1%	21.6%	24.8%	38.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	38.1%	21.6%	24.8%	38.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	38.1%	21.6%	24.8%	38.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	38.1%	21.6%	24.8%	38.5%	46.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	30.0%	21.6%	24.8%	23.4%	37.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	30.0%	21.6%	24.8%	23.4%	37.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	30.0%	21.6%	24.8%	23.4%	37.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	30.0%	21.6%	24.8%	23.4%	37.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	30.0%	21.6%	18.4%	23.4%	37.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	30.0%	21.6%	18.4%	23.4%	37.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	30.0%	21.6%	18.4%	23.4%	37.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	30.0%	21.6%	18.4%	23.4%	37.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	31.4%	21.6%	18.4%	23.4%	37.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	31.4%	21.6%	18.4%	23.4%	37.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	31.4%	21.6%	18.4%	23.4%	37.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	37%	81.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	81.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	79.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	81.3°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	79.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261022-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗