KMEM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

51%

49%

32%

29%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

HRESNO 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.85u · HRES −58.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	19.3%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	11.3%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	17.2%	—	—	46.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	64.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	6.8%	43.9%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	64.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	47.2%	55.6%	11.9%	—	52.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	42.0%	58.7%	14.4%	—	31.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	25.1%	47.7%	6.3%	—	24.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	59.3%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	36.7%	54.8%	8.4%	—	30.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	0.5%	60.5%	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	36.9%	50.8%	5.1%	—	23.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	17.3%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	42.2%	52.6%	8.3%	—	29.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	41.1%	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	35.6%	50.9%	7.0%	—	17.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	47.2%	59.4%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	38.5%	57.7%	9.8%	28.7%	29.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	56.0%	—	—	17.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	81.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	51%	81.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	81.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	80.2°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	78.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗