KMEM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

51%

49%

32%

29%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

HRESNO 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.85u · HRES −58.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:42+00:00	44.4%	44.3%	36.7%	40.4%	56.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	44.4%	36.0%	36.7%	40.4%	56.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	44.4%	36.0%	36.7%	40.4%	56.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	44.4%	36.0%	35.8%	40.4%	56.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:23+00:00	44.4%	36.0%	35.8%	40.4%	56.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	44.4%	36.0%	35.8%	40.4%	56.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	41.2%	36.0%	35.8%	37.8%	57.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	41.2%	36.0%	35.8%	37.8%	57.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	41.2%	36.0%	35.8%	37.8%	57.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	41.2%	36.0%	35.8%	37.8%	57.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	41.2%	36.0%	35.8%	37.8%	57.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	41.2%	36.0%	34.9%	37.8%	57.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	41.2%	36.0%	34.9%	37.8%	57.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	41.2%	36.0%	34.9%	37.8%	57.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	39.6%	36.0%	34.9%	37.8%	57.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	39.6%	36.0%	34.9%	37.8%	57.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	39.6%	36.0%	34.9%	37.8%	57.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	39.6%	36.0%	34.9%	37.8%	57.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	41.4%	32.1%	54.3%	40.5%	56.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	41.4%	32.1%	54.3%	40.5%	56.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	41.4%	32.1%	54.3%	40.5%	56.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	41.4%	32.1%	41.5%	40.5%	56.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	41.4%	32.1%	41.5%	40.5%	56.5%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	41.4%	32.1%	41.5%	40.5%	56.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	48.3%	32.1%	41.5%	28.8%	50.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	48.3%	32.1%	41.5%	28.8%	50.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	48.3%	32.1%	41.5%	28.8%	50.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	48.3%	32.1%	41.5%	28.8%	50.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	48.3%	32.1%	41.5%	28.8%	50.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	48.3%	32.1%	48.9%	28.8%	50.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	48.3%	32.1%	48.9%	28.8%	50.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	48.3%	32.1%	48.9%	28.8%	50.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	53.5%	32.1%	48.9%	28.8%	50.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	53.5%	32.1%	48.9%	28.8%	50.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	53.5%	32.1%	48.9%	28.8%	50.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	81.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	51%	81.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	81.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	80.2°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	78.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗