KMEM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

29%

28%

20%

20%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 31.6¢Risks 31.55u

EPSNO 68.5¢Risks 68.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +68.45u · EPS −68.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	12.3%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	59.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	6.3%	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	10.1%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	3.4%	31.1%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	33.6%	41.6%	6.3%	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	28.5%	44.2%	7.6%	—	19.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	14.6%	33.0%	2.8%	—	14.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	43.8%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	23.0%	39.0%	3.8%	—	17.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	0.1%	44.3%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	22.5%	34.5%	2.0%	—	12.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	8.5%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	26.2%	35.4%	3.4%	—	16.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	24.9%	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	20.3%	33.0%	2.6%	—	8.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	29.2%	40.6%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	21.8%	38.5%	3.8%	14.7%	15.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	36.3%	—	—	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	44%	82.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	80.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	80.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	80.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	81.1°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261023-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗