KMEM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

29%

28%

20%

20%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 31.6¢Risks 31.55u

EPSNO 68.5¢Risks 68.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +68.45u · EPS −68.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:25+00:00	58.3%	25.2%	48.4%	39.0%	26.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	58.3%	25.2%	48.4%	39.0%	26.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:28+00:00	58.3%	27.0%	48.4%	39.0%	26.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	58.3%	27.0%	48.4%	39.0%	26.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	58.3%	27.0%	48.4%	39.0%	26.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	58.3%	27.0%	46.9%	39.0%	26.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	58.3%	27.0%	46.9%	39.0%	26.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	58.3%	27.0%	46.9%	39.0%	26.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	50.7%	27.0%	46.9%	39.0%	58.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:26+00:00	50.7%	27.0%	46.9%	39.0%	58.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	50.7%	27.0%	46.9%	39.0%	58.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	50.7%	27.0%	46.9%	39.0%	58.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	50.7%	27.0%	46.9%	50.6%	58.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:28+00:00	50.7%	27.0%	49.2%	50.6%	58.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:30+00:00	50.7%	27.0%	49.2%	50.6%	58.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	50.7%	27.0%	49.2%	50.6%	58.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	52.8%	27.0%	49.2%	50.6%	58.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	52.8%	27.0%	49.2%	50.6%	58.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	52.8%	27.0%	49.2%	50.6%	58.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	52.8%	27.0%	49.2%	50.6%	58.7%
2026-10-18T04:13:53+00:00	36.3%	21.8%	27.5%	26.7%	40.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	36.3%	21.8%	31.2%	26.7%	40.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	36.3%	21.8%	31.2%	26.7%	40.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	36.3%	21.8%	31.2%	26.7%	40.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	36.3%	21.8%	31.2%	26.7%	40.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:11+00:00	33.6%	21.8%	31.2%	27.9%	43.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	33.6%	21.8%	31.2%	27.9%	43.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	33.6%	21.8%	31.2%	27.9%	43.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	33.6%	21.8%	31.2%	27.9%	43.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:41+00:00	33.6%	19.6%	20.4%	27.9%	43.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	33.6%	19.6%	20.4%	27.9%	43.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	33.6%	19.6%	20.4%	27.9%	43.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	33.6%	19.6%	20.4%	27.9%	43.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	29.3%	19.6%	20.4%	27.9%	43.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	44%	82.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	80.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	80.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	80.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	81.1°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261023-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗