KMEM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 06:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.1¢Risks 3.55u

EPSNO 92.9¢Risks 46.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.45u · EPS −46.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	2.1%	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	24.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	0.7%	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	0.2%	6.6%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	6.9%	10.2%	0.5%	—	8.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.8%	10.6%	0.6%	—	2.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.4%	5.6%	0.1%	—	1.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	9.2%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	2.6%	6.9%	0.1%	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	8.5%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.2%	4.9%	0.1%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.5%	4.5%	0.1%	—	1.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.1%	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.3%	3.4%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.4%	4.8%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.2%	4.0%	0.1%	0.6%	0.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	3.2%	—	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	14%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	14%	81.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	81.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	79.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	81.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	83.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Memphis · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗